One Month From Iowa

Sen. Sam Brownback became the first Republican to officially announce his intention to seek the GOP nomination a little less than eleven months ago. Since then, the race has had more twists and turns and ups and downs than a Six Flags roller coaster. Brownback is no longer in the race, and neither are former governors Jim Gilmore of Virgina and Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich was in, for a day. Then he was out. Other talked about Republicans never made the plunge. Gov. Mark Sanford of South Carolina decided that his current job was a better one; and former Gov. Jeb Bush decided to keep his surname and look for alternate employment. As the campaign winds its way, mercifully, towards votes that count, all the dynamic changes have failed to shake things out. The nomination is as up for grabs now, one month from Iowa, as it was last January.

Rudy Giuliani is still the leader in the national polls, but his position as the front runner is not nearly as secure as it was coming out of Labor Day. Last week was the worst week of his campaign since the first Republican debate, where the mayor seemed very unsure of himself in explaining his pro-choice views. The allegations that Giuliani either misused or covered up the cost of city resources expended on his personal travel–to meet with his current wife while he was still married to his second–hit right at the strength of his campaign. Giuliani has built the rationale for his candidacy on his ability to govern in a conservative fashion, whatever his personal views on social issues. He has since provided a credible explanation for the reports of last week, however, when a candidate is in front, he doesn’t want to have to spend time explaining anything.

Mitt Romney is in fourth place nationally, but he is the leader in both Iowa and New Hampshire heading into the stretch run in those key early states. But he isn’t sitting very comfortably either, despite his position in the state polls. Romney has never quite convinced conservatives that he is one of them. His support seems to come from the fact that he’s there, as in Iowa; or has been there, as in New Hampshire, where Romney is well known as a former governor of neighboring Massachusetts. Furthermore, he often gives answers that seem to be as confusing to the candidate as they must seem to the voters. In the last debate, Romney, a Mormon, was asked whether he believed the Bible literally. He said yes, but his face registered an expression of extreme discomfort as his mouth said what his brain clearly doesn’t believe. Religious ambiguity is not attractive to Iowa voters; and for Romney, Iowa is the whole ball game.

Incidents like that one have allowed former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee to sneak up on Romney and the rest of the field. Huckabee has managed to avoid any rhetorical missteps in the debates while coming off as a genteel, Southern populist with a penchant for delivering one-line crowd pleasers. He has rocketed to the top spot in the DesMoines Register poll in Iowa, and is even showing an improved standing in New Hampshire. Not bad for a candidate who’s campaign budget could fit inside a child’s piggy bank. Huckabee, more than any other candidate except Ron Paul, has made the most of the opportunities presented to him in his campaign. What his candidacy lacks in specifics, it makes up for in positions. In this respect, Huckabee’s campaign most resembles that of a Democrat. There’s a lot of information about what he supports and believes in, but not a lot about what he would actually do. There are no 12 point plans on Huckabee’s web site. If Huckabee hopes to capitalize again on his recent poll surge, he is going to have to get specific, soon.

Last among the top tier candidates is Sen. John McCain. McCain, too, has been enjoying a surge in popularity of late. Many commentators declared him the winner of the last debate because he seemed the most like the grown up on stage. McCain’s position has rebounded as the troop surge in Iraq has improved conditions in that country. McCain’s signature issue is the war on terror. He bills himself, correctly, as the candidate with the most foreign policy experience in the field, Republican or Democrat. McCain’s second signature issue is McCain. When he is not being a hawk on the war, he is busy being a maverick on almost everything else. Even his advertising in New Hampshire acknowledges this fact. “I love [America] enough to make some people angry,” McCain says in his latest television ad. McCain has pulled himself even with Rudy Giuliani in some polls in New Hampshire. But with his campaign’s money woes, he’ll need to repeat his win from 2000 there to make it to Super Tuesday on February 5th.

Among the rest of the candidates, there are two also-rans and two with potential to play spoiler for the top four. Most disappointing of those two is former Sen. Fred Thompson. The breathless anticipation with which conservatives awaited any news of Thompson’s intentions this past summer seems so out of place just three months into his candidacy. Thompson is long on specifics. He is alone among the Republicans in addressing issues with conservative ideas; leading Rush Limbaugh to say that he was the only one on stage in the last debate that sounded like a conservative. But he is short on intangibles. He just doesn’t seem to connect with voters and viewers. When the message is good but doesn’t take root, blame the messenger.

Rep. Ron Paul may outraise all of the GOP candidates in the fourth quarter. He had his best performance to date in the last debate, and still he embraced North American union conspiracy theorists. While Paul has been able to generate enormous internet enthusiasm, he has been unable to produce a political movement. This is because his supporters don’t see themselves as part of the political establishment. They see Paul as their savior from the establishment. Ultimately, though Paul will be in the race to the end, his phenomenon is bound to burn itself out as all those rabid internet fans slink back to their hideouts to await the next third party messiah.

Rep. Duncan Hunter seems like such a patriot and such gentlemanly fellow. But he is just not going to be president or vice-president. Rep. Tom Tancredo had his best moment in the last debate when he exulted in the fact that all the other candidates were trying to “out-Tancredo Tancredo.” Mission accomplished.

The closeness of the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary means that the Iowa winner will likely not be able to turn his momentum into a strong showing less than a week later in New Hampshire. If Huckabee wins Iowa, as is looking increasingly likely, he will hurt Romney to McCain’s benefit in New Hampshire, and to Giuliani’s in Michigan and South Carolina. By the end of January, when Florida votes, there may well have been four different winners of the major primaries and caucuses. That would leave the race wide open going into February 5th, and the 19 state onslaught of primaries and caucuses across the nation. Or maybe not. The only sure thing in this campaign season is that no one really knows what’s coming next.

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Mark Impomeni is a contributing editor at RedState and covers the White House for AOL’s new political blog, The Political Machine. He writes a column with a conservative’s take on the state of the 2008 presidential race for Political-Buzz.com.

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