When the presidential campaigns started almost one year ago, the conventional wisdom was that the frontloading of the primary calendar would produce a lightning fast nomination process, followed by a long general election campaign. But after the first two contests, on both sides, the election is shaping up to be a long, drawn out affair. There have been four different winners of the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries, and no one in either party carries significant momentum into the next set of campaigns. Further complicating matters, the candidates have split up, with some concentrating their efforts on the Michigan primary next week, and others turning to South Carolina for the first-in-the-South primaries on the last two weekends of the month. In short, despite all the ads, the money, the strategy and the commentary, no one has a clear handle on what will happen next in this unprecedented presidential campaign.

The Democrats, at least, have settled into a two-way race between Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Former Sen. John Edwards was a distant third in New Hampshire, a disappointing performance coming off his strong second in Iowa. He remains in the race with a vow to fight all the way to the convention in August. But his path to the nomination is becoming increasingly difficult and unlikely. In contrast, the frontrunners each have a win under their belts, sufficiently large campaign war chests, and solid bases of support to carry them through the multi-state primary onslaught on Super Tuesday, February 5th.

Far from being the coronation many expected, the Democratic race is a true contrast between the past and the future, idealism and cynicism, new blood and sage experience. Both Clinton and Obama will remain in the race to the convention and will probably trade victories for much of the remainder of January. Obama is in good shape in Nevada, which caucuses on the 19th, and South Carolina, which holds its Democratic primary on the 26th. Clinton is virtually alone on the ballot in Michigan, due to the state’s decision to move its primary up to January 15th, in defiance of the Democratic National Committee. There are no delegates at stake in Michigan as a punishment, but a win there, following on her dramatic come from behind victory in New Hampshire, will give the Clinton campaign something of a boost heading into Florida on the 29th. The most recent polling shows Clinton with an eight-point lead in the all-important, winner-take-all state. The candidates could emerge from January with three victories apiece, making Super Tuesday all the more important.

On the Republican side, there are many more possibilities. Sen. John McCain is fresh off a win in New Hampshire after a stronger than expected third place showing in Iowa. He has moved on to Michigan, where that independent minded state stands to give him a second victory in a row and more momentum than any candidate has carried thus far. Close on his heels is former Governor Mitt Romney, who placed second in both early contests and now is competing in the first of his three “home� states. Romney’s father George was a popular governor of Michigan in the 1960s, and Romney was raised there. Former Governor Mike Huckabee, the winner of the Iowa caucus, was a distant third in New Hampshire and has now moved on to South Carolina to try and capture the Republican primary on January 19. The enigmatic former Senator Fred Thompson, who has placed all his hopes on the state that borders his native Tennessee, joins him there. Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, not a factor in the early voting, is not competing in Michigan or South Carolina. He has staked his hopes on Florida’s primary.

McCain stands a good chance of winning in Michigan and doing serious damage to Romney in the process. Romney’s name recognition, business background, and family ties have not propelled him to the lead there. A loss for Romney will not end his campaign, he has plenty of money to continue on, but like Edwards, his path to the nomination will become much more far fetched. Romney figures to win in Nevada on the 19th, but that win will be overshadowed by the South Carolina primary result. McCain may not be able to translate the momentum from two straight victories into a third. South Carolina was his Waterloo in 2000; and with its higher share of Christian conservatives, is not tailor made for him. It is more suited to Huckabee, a Baptist minister, and Thompson, a no-nonsense conservative with an array of detailed plans to run on. Huckabee currently leads there while McCain concentrates elsewhere and Romney pulls up stakes to focus on Michigan. But his record as a governor will be given much greater scrutiny in South Carolina than it has received thus far. South Carolina voters are arguably the most conservative voters to cast ballots in January, and that gives Thompson an opening. If Giuliani can hold onto his lead in Florida, by the end of the month, all five of the major Republicans could have had at least one primary victory in January.

As the campaigns take a bit of a breather in the run up to the Michigan primary, the race remains almost hopelessly muddled. Nothing was solved by all the money and attention that was devoted to Iowa and New Hampshire for the past year. Now the candidates’ sights turn to states where they have not spent as much time or treasure, but whose impact on the races could be just as great. The loser thus far has been the conventional wisdom, which called for a quick primary season. It appears now that the nominees in both parties will not be known for some time. But the American people are watching with great interest. Both Iowa and New Hampshire produced records for primary voter turnout. The accelerated primary schedule, once thought to limit the voice of the people in the selection of the nominees for president, may end up producing the longest contest in recent campaign history.