Political Buzz

No reason to spend long on this topic - mainly because it’s over and done - but it’s hard to ignore the growing dismay over the misdirection of the pre-primary polls and discussion of whether or not either New Hampshire voters or even the Clintons themselves are guilty of some level of racism in the whole mater.

First the polls: Scott Rasmussen and Rasmussen Reports has a good analysis of why the NH polls were off by so much in predicting almost a double-digit win for Obama a day before the vote. They run through the litany of possible reasons why the polls dropped the ball; Hillary’s tears wooing last-minute undecideds, wrongly gauging who would show up on primary day and underestimating Hillary’s GOTV effort on Tuesday. It’s all possible, but…

Given the fact that everyone was surprised, it’s likely that no one factor can explain why. It is quite possible that each of the factors mentioned above—and others—may have played a role.

Fair enough. Also important to note that some polls, including Rasmussen, were “tending” back in favor of Hillary. 10-12% leads for Obama were being cut nearly in half in some results on Monday and early Tuesday morning. Could it be that the press was so enamored with the mega-story of Hillary imploding in NH and maybe even dropping out of the race that they chose to ignore last-minute reports of a closer race than expected? We were all in love with the Obama storyline…

And then come the conspiracy theories. Checking left and right wing blogs and radio finds that they are all over the place on the Hillary win in the Granite State. Some agitators are convinced the the voting machines used in some major NH precincts were rigged by Clinton agents to give her more votes. Others say that there are reports (not picked up by any reputable outfits…) that Hillary’s poll workers bullied voters on primary day. And, of course, there’s the race question…

The lefties especially point to Bill Clinton’s rant on primary morning against the media’s “soft” treatment of Obama and his “fairy tale(s)” as a veiled reference to Obama getting special favors because he is black. They are basically accusing the Clintons of, while maybe not themselves being KKK sympathizers and blatant racists, at least stirring up queasiness of a black nominee among NH Dems wanting a November win. Or was the real racism on the part of NH voters, who independently decided to follow the “Bradley effect” and pledge their support for Obama in the polls and then have a racially-based change of heart in the booths?

Let’s not play these bizarre and dangerous games and chalk up the HRC comeback to solid campaigning and some generalizations in the polls. How about that?

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Check out Mark Impomeni’s brand new post on the aftermath of Iowa and New Hampshire: “A Long Year’s Journey Into Night” 

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Filed under: New Hampshire, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, The Blog