Michigan: Good news for Romney?

With polls in Michigan set to close within a couple of hours, exit poll data is beginning to come in. And that data shows the makings of a major win for Romney at a time when he needs a “gold” the most.

It was clear that Romney could only win with low turnout among independent and right-leaning Democrats - McCain’s core base of support. Early reports of overall low turnout from MI voters and exit polls showing a steep turnout drop from indies and Dems requesting Republican ballots means that a Romney win is all but assured.

Michigan has open primaries and no registration by party, so voters choose on primary day which partisan contest to vote in. In 2000 with no Democratic race but for an eventual blowout in caucuses three weeks later, many Democrats voted in the Republican primary — totaling 17 percent of that electorate, more than in any other GOP primary exit poll since at least 1992.

On Tuesday there were both Democratic and Republican primaries and though ballot maneuvering left the Democratic side in essence non-competitive, apparently it kept some Democrats from migrating to the Republican contest — where they made up fewer than one in 10 voters. In 2000, Republicans made up only 48 percent of the GOP primary electorate; Tuesday they were two-thirds of it. A quarter of Republican primary voters Tuesday called themselves independent, down from 35 percent eight years ago.

In all, the exit poll indicated seven in 10 voters Tuesday opted to vote in the Republican primary. Among those who did vote on the Democratic side, more than three in four called themselves Democrats.

Another boost for Romney is polling that shows the economy is by far the most important issue for Michigan voters - Republican or Democrat. Mitt made economic concerns his own and, with a little bit of pandering and big promises, the distressed people of the Wolverine State rewarded him for it.

Of course, after the debacle New Hampshire last week,  all of the data and potential results are in doubt until actual returns come in. That should begin around 9 or 10 PM.

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