Down to the final night before the crucial and potentially race-changing primary in South Carolina and the important - not as big as SC for the Republicans - caucus in Nevada for the Dems. Each state appears to have narrowed the list of possible winners to two: McCain and Huckabee in SC, Hillary and Obama in NV.

The big surprise in these tight contests is just how nasty the Dem fight has gotten over the unknown commodity that is Nevada. Anonymous hit jobs on Hillary over her “respect” for the Hispanic community; insinuations by Hillary supporters that Obama can’t get support from those same key Hispanics because he’s black; lawsuits between the two sides in the race over caucus locations. Very messy..

The flip side of this scratch-fest has been the relatively tame battle between the two very close frontrunners in the South Carolina GOP primary - McCain and Huckabee. Sure, there’s been the tussle over the Confederate flag and the usual tricks of push polling  - both from the Huck camp. But it’s positively a yawner compared to what was seen back in 2000 and how nasty the animosity became even at the start of this campaign in Iowa. Have JMac and Huck really found a way to go beyond the usual dirty bag of political shenanigans when battling close in a do-or-die state? Depends on what happens when actual voters go to the polls.

Political-Buzz.com SC and NV Candidate tracker-

REPUBLICANS -

 John McCain -

The loss in Michigan has tempered his high-flying campaign, but he is still the Republican to beat in South Carolina. Strong veteran base and national security pull has even a few wary GOPers set to back him over the rest of the gang. But can last-minute questions on topics from abortion to the Confederate flag derail his victory train? Polls are narrowing and there is no doubt that it will be close. Might be able to beat Huckabee on security and grit. It’s fair to say that a loss in SC would put a serious dent in JMac’s campaign, nearly a fatal one. But a McCain defeat means an almost certain Huck win  - not the worst outcome for the grizzled campaigner. And that would lead to a wide-open Florida race that will become an instant pile-up of epic proportions.

Mike Huckabee +

Huck is the unquestioned winner coming out of the Romney upset in Michigan. No McCain win means that much more attraction that Huck puts out there for antsy SC Republicans. They won’t feel the urge to just coalesce around a winning candidate - no matter how unsavory some aspects of McCain are to them. This wasn’t about swaying evangelical voters; they’re safely in the Huckabee fold and prepared to do what it takes to beat down JMac. No, the importance of the Mitt “gold” in MI was to free up the conscience of undecided conservatives who like McCain on security bu prefer Huck’s social standings and tax positions. He is moving up in the polls because of that and has a decent shot at an upset in the Palmetto State. And a decent shot at gaining some momentum for the big clash in Florida. And a decent shot at…

Mitt Romney +

Probably will end up third in SC, but that’s a safe spot for Romney after a crucial win in Michigan. It’s a just a breather for Mitt after that. It’s hard to believe that enough evangelicals and potential McCain fans will switch last-minute and become Mittheads in SC. Just not feasible. So no win, but a good #3 provides that very important word  - momentum - for his campaign heading into that very important state - Florida.  Getting snappy with reporters might be signs of cracks, but keeping his cool and then basically trashing the entire episode is the right way to go.

Fred Thompson/Rudy Giuliani -

These two share the inauspicious role of campaign duds. They were the hottest thing in the race a few months ago. Weird campaign strategies and several flat-out bungles have dropped these good men to the position of virtual afterthought. Fred’s worse off than the Florida-crazed Rudy - he does have a fleeting chance in our Sunshine State - because his only host is pulling off a serious comeback in SC and winning the whole thing. Polls have been known to shows some flawed outcomes - ahem - but a 10% surge in the final day in a four-way race is very unlikely. Not just Hillary v Obama in the Palmetto State.

DEMOCRATS

Hillary Clinton +

Still rising after her improbable New Hampshire win. Appears to also be primed for victory today in Nevada despite both a major union endorsement for Obama and that same mega-union fighting to open caucus locations where their members work - casinos. They won that lawsuit, and between these two developments that Hillary camp is coyly deflating expectations by having Mark Penn put out a memo to reporters listing the many reasons why Obama has and edge and why Hillary will be “very lucky” to get an NV win. Nice move… Any sort of win here gives HRC a solid boost going into the impossible race in South Carolina next week. Almost no chance of a win there, so the Silver State has become more important to the Clinton camp than ever before. Still has to be the frontrunner.

Barack Obama -/+

Culinary Workers endorsement not looking quite as beneficial now that Hillary has built up a lead in the polls and the Hispanic vote does appear to be going to HRC. Can’t afford to worry about Nevada with SC in the forecast. The Obama campaign will be all about trying to consolidate their leads in the Palmetto State and make sure the African American vote mobilizes for him. Debate performance in Vegas has hurt his image. And Hillary’s constant hammering about his lack of “management skills” makes some voters wonder about him taking charge of a situation. Bottom line: Nevada is not a crucial state for Obama.

John Edwards -

Nevada is very crucial for John Edwards. It’s probably that last chance he has to win something this primary season. His poll numbers have been dropping by double-digits as of late in NV, but that’s not as worrisome as it sounds due to the unknown nature of this caucus. Will union support end up boosting JRE to the top? Any chance of momentum heading into his home state of South Carolina depends on a win in Nevada. But it’s not going to happen…