Clinton campaign coming apart?

Didn’t we see this headline immediately before the infamous New Hampshire primary? When Hillary’s run looked lost and Bill was blustering all over the state with bizarre tirades and cash was tight and top advisers were prepared to quit/be fired and Obamamentum was sweeping the nation - and the media? Well, despite the opposite outcome from that earlier frenzy, we’re all at it again as Hillary deals with a weekend sweep from Obama, tight cash, a flustered Bill and her campaign manager being forced out by HRC herself. It’s a troubled time in the Clinton camp.

But the lessons of New Hampshire and the overall sink-the-iceberg mentality and track record of the Clintons  means that it is inherently stupid and lazy to take any reports of impending doom at face value. Of course, it would also be clumsy to possess such faith in the Hillary machine to think that she’s merely toying with the rookie Obama. After all, how about the superdelegates?

To lay the latter group low and to bolster the argument for the HRC naysayers,  this campaign crisis bears little resemblance to New Hampshire. It was still very much early in the race, with the coffers of each side generally even (and low) and Obama still seen as a vulnerable and unprepared Iowa winner who could still be a one-hit wonder. The campaign used all of that - plus Hillary’s tears - to great advantage in spinning NH as only a potential road block and also bringing up the change vs. experience battle. It played very well with NH Dems and the vibe of that period so long ago.

But that was before Obama’s triumphs in South Carolina and Super Tuesday. It was before the Republicans had a nominee and the always-important electability factor became central to the race. And missteps along the way since NH have had a negative impact on perception and execution with Hillary.

Now we could very well be seeing denial - not just from inside the campaign, but from Hillary herself .After the messy removal of Patti Solis Doyle from her campaign manager post - in the middle of a fight for HRC’s survival, Hillary addressed the development as trivial at best. 

“There is just too much to be done, so we had to add some more people. There really is not significant change, we really just got to get more help, we just don’t have enough help,” Clinton told a Chicago television news crew. Solis Doyle is a Chicago native.

“This has already been the longest Presidential campaign in the history of our nation, and one that has required enormous sacrifices from all of us and our families,” she wrote.

Doyle’s replacement is the fiery Maggie Williams, an old Clinton friend who has been seen throughout the campaign as the last-ditch manager of a final HRC push.  Remember that Williams was the name mentioned as a replacement for Doyle before the New Hampshire upset.

Denial also comes into play in regards to how the Clinton campaign is portraying the plus factors for Hillary over Obama. They have thankfully shuttered the extremely lame policy-to-policy argument for HRC, no longer vigorously pointing out some inane and generally minor difference in, say, Obama’s health care plan or tax proposals.  That’s still there, but no longer the main attraction.

Now it’s on to electability and who can beat McCain - now that he’s the GOP opponent. In between spirited efforts at bashing poor JMac to see how can do it best, both sides have framed arguments for winning in November. Obama will always have the perceived advantage on this. He’s a fresh face with no juicy background, yet he has a veteran and stable campaign team and a charming demeanor that can brush back any Republican swiftboat attempt. With moderate and independent voters also wanting change, Obama is someone who can rally a broad base.

Clinton campaign insiders have tried to tack almost the same tack; very little difference between the two in this one area that will decided the Dem race. A conference call with pollster Mark Penn and others today shows that they are basically trying to use Obama’s own electability arguments against him - with only a few clumsy and offbeat twists. Like this…

“What we have seen time and time again is that the Republican attack machine redefines the Democratic candidates,” said Mark Penn, Mrs. Clinton’s pollster and chief strategist. “Hillary has been through this process.”

“How much do independent voters really know about Barack Obama, his voting record and his past positions?” Mr. Penn said, adding that Mr. Obama “has never had a serious Republican challenger.”

Clumsy…

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