Obama 2012

As the Democratic Party primary hurtles toward the oblivion of a brokered nominating convention in August, concerned party insiders and heavyweights have begun to talk openly of finding a way to settle the titanic struggle between Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama. The talk at first was that Clinton should drop out of the race for the good of the party. Now, with her campaign-saving primary victories in Rhode Island, Ohio, and Texas, as well as the first highly publicized missteps by Obama, the possibility of a unity ticket between the two is being floated. No less than former President and would-be First Spouse Bill Clinton lent his support to the idea late last week while stumping for his wife in Wyoming. But there is one other possibility that has not received much attention, yet. The third way to settle the Democratic primary fight, and perhaps salvage the future of the party, is for Sen. Obama to withdraw from the race.

Obama has more than made the case that he has the potential to be a transformative figure in American politics. The crowds that his hope and change road show have attracted may not have a precedent in modern American political campaigning. He is rhetorically gifted, with the ability to communicate with voters on a level that transcends political issues. Furthermore, Obama has demonstrated the ability to inspire loyalty in those voters; he has won more primary and caucus states than Sen. Clinton, and in all regions of the country. He has the lead in delegates, has vastly bigger campaign resources, and is viewed as the likely winner of the internecine battle with Sen. Clinton. All of that argues strongly for Obama to stay in the race. Perhaps no ordinary politician in Sen. Obama’s position would even consider dropping out. But Obama is no ordinary politician.

Sen. Clinton, on the other hand, has made an almost equally strong case for her nomination by the Democratic Party. She too has won an impressively large delegate total. She has won all of the big states that any Democrat needs to capture the White House: California, Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and New York. At the same time, she has been able to convince more of the party elite, the super delegates, to support her. That speaks well of her ability to lead an oft-fractured Democratic Party in one direction. She has raised a very large amount of money that, but for Obama’s war chest, would dwarf anything raised by any other presidential candidate. Sen. Clinton has been dogged and determined in her pursuit of the nomination. She has lately demonstrated the ability to craft a coherent and effective message with her “experience” angle. And it is that very ability that shows why a prolonged fight between Sen. Clinton and Sen. Obama is not in the best interest of the Democratic Party, or of Sen. Obama.

By attacking Obama on his relative lack of experience, Clinton opens a door for the Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain. McCain has bushels more experience than the two Democratic contenders combined, as Sen. Clinton has all but admitted. She means her compliments of McCain’s experience to redound to her benefit, convincing Democrats that they dare not put a national security neophyte like Obama up against the grizzled old war hero. Obama has responded by claiming that Clinton’s experience is not all she makes it out to be. This is a fine argument, as far as it goes, and may well be true. But Obama is a different kind of politician. His is a campaign that is supposed to be built around his ability to bring people of all races, creeds, and ideologies together. Clinton, on the other hand, is already perceived as a brass-knuckles campaigner and not one to shy away from a fight. Every time that Obama steps into the ring with her, on this or any other issue, he becomes a little more like every other office seeker, and appears a little less like an agent of change.

Obama eschews labels. He doesn’t want to be called liberal, and he has studiously avoided speaking in specifics about his policy proposals. Clinton has tried to turn Obama’s strategic vagueness against him by subtly and rhetorically asking if voters really know what they are voting for in Sen. Obama. That question is going to begin to haunt Obama’s campaign as the press begins to demand that the candidate be more detailed. Obama is a liberal, despite his dislike of the label, and has been ranked by the respected National Journal as the most liberal member of the Senate two years running. When he provides the specifics, they will reveal him not to be ideologically transcendent, but and ordinary left-of-center Democrat. Every candidate has to deal with ideological baggage to a degree, but it is especially dangerous for Obama, who has sold himself as a man that rises above ideology and is deeper than party loyalty. Voters are very unforgiving of politicians who bill themselves one way and act another. For his future and that of the Democratic Party, Obama must avoid the specter of buyer’s remorse. He can do so, if he decides to quit the race before the voters take a hard look at what he is selling.

An announcement from Sen. Obama that he is quitting the race seems unthinkable. It would be the most magnanimous political act in history and certainly since Vice President Nixon decided against challenging the results of the 1960 presidential election. But Obama must consider it as a possibility. In 2012, Obama would be 50. He would be in his eighth year in the Senate, having been reelected to his second term in what could be the biggest landslide ever seen in a Senatorial election. He would have had four more years to establish himself as a man of substance and not just speeches. He would almost certainly run virtually unopposed for the Democratic nomination. Even in the worst case scenario, a two-term Clinton presidency, in 2016, he would be just 54 and completing a full two Senate terms, maybe even as majority leader. Continuing this campaign will only typecast him for his next run. If he wins, he will be badly bruised by a relentless Clinton machine.  It’s a little like mud wrestling a pig:  Obama just gets dirty, but the Clintons like it. If he loses, when he next runs for the nomination, he will be yesterday’s man. If Sen. Obama has any concern for his future, he should consider whether discretion is indeed the better part of valor in this contest, and consider walking away, living to fight another day, with his reputation and honor intact.

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