The Buzz
- It’s a new day at the Obama campaign, with the ongoing scare centering around Jeremiah Wright’s public meltdown and trashing of Barack providing a tense backdrop. Both the candidate and his camp are trying to move on with the fight against Hillary and prepare for general election strategies to thwart McCain and his fresh case of anti-Obama ammo. They say that Wright is the past and the dialogue should be “all about issues,” but there is no question that the media, the Clinton/GOP oppo and voters are still enamored with the controversy. Obama should be thankful that he received a giant mulligan following his first whiff on Rev. Wright’s comments following the initial video clips. But will his swift dismissal of his longtime friend and pastor over the recent outbursts put away any questions about how Obama personally handled the situation? What Wright believes will always be out there, but it could be rendered harmless if a majority of people feel that Obama made a mistake but managed to clean it up with dignity. More on this later…
- Is there a secret lack of suspense to the breathless parsing of where the almighty Dem superdelegates will beak? Lots of uncommitted SD’s in the House and Senate, but Obama backer Claire McCaskill says that there is a general consensus that Obama is the inevitable nominee - and thus their as-of-yet unofficial choice in the Dem race. An early lead for Hillary among her longtime Capitol Hill colleagues has vanished with a surge of Obamamentum among rhe Congressional super’s in the last month or so. Ben Chandler and Jeff Bingaman are the latest Dems in the House and/or Senate to break for the frontrunner. An Obama win in North Carolina - a virtual lock that would make it nearly impossible for Hillary to win outright - seems to be the signal for most of the remaining uncommitted super’s. Expect a new wave of endorsements by the end of May.
- Is Indiana Hillary’s Waterloo? The fading contender is becoming increasingly desperate for attention and a chance to deliver her trademark knockouts in yet another debate. Her demand for a quasi-debate in the vein of the Lincoln/Douglas brawl of yesteryear was a sign of her increasing, well, hysteria. Give her credit for attempting to bring in some actual issues to the fight in the Hoosier and Tar Heel states. But, of course, that’s only the better to bludgeon a teetering Obama with. Her campaign for May 6 and beyond has taken on the aura of a second tier candidate, rambling across states spreading her gospel, trying to turn attention to unnamed “issues” and becoming increasingly hostile to opponents and the media. Has the crush of Rev. Wright/Obama coverage actually hurt Hillary?
- NC Governor Mike Easley’s endorsement of Hillary yesterday gives her a minimal chance at winning what would be a definite game-changer for her. A NC win is in the realm of impossible, but does the backing of a popular governor help her win enough white voters to counteract Obama’s lock on the African American vote? It cements her usual hold on the blue collar and working class in a state where those demographics lack the importance they hold in states like PA and IN. Hurting HRC’s chances are the broad swath of voters who are ether black or reside in the well-off and white collar suburbs in the Research Triangle and Charlotte. Easley doesn’t do much there.
- A burst of speculation at John Edwards would follow Easley into Hillary’s camp before the North Carolina primary has wilted. Nothing is expected from the silent JRE, save for the outspoken oppo to McCain’s health care plan from wife Elizabeth.
- Elizabeth had company in immediately criticizing McCain’s new plan for remodeling health care in the U.S. Both Elizabeth and the DNC are doing oppo outreach, while the SEIU has launched a high-publicity ad targeting McCain over this and other topics.
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“An Obama win in North Carolina … seems to be the signal for most of the remaining uncommitted super’s.”
Hard to see why. An Obama win in NC is inevitable, but he must win by at least 12 points. That would indicate no demographic shift in Clinton’s favor. If he beats her by single digits, his electability will be in serious, serious doubt.
“NC Governor Mike Easley’s endorsement of Hillary yesterday gives her a minimal chance at winning what would be a definite game-changer for her.”
Again, she has no chance of winning outright. The margin will be the key. An Obama win of anything less than double digits will be a game-changer for her.