Clinton camp memo plays up WV: Should we listen?
While Obama flees the state, the Clinton campaign is taking full advantage of her probable landslide fueled by angry mountain whites. They are playing up this race non-stop, using it as a platform to pick apart Obama’s electability and convey a sense of doom felt by white Dems if Obama gets the nominee. They hate him, so they won’t vote or will vote for McCain. The exit polls out of WV today will shed more light on that topic, if Hillary is right about her base.
The latest round of the expectations is a breathless memo sent from campaign HQ detailing “Why West Virginia Matters” and tearing apart Obama’s label as “presumptive nominee.”
With a record turnout expected in today’s primary, West Virginia Democrats will make clear who they believe is the strongest candidate to take on Sen. McCain in the Fall.
The Mountain State is used to picking winners. Every nominee has carried the state’s primary since 1976, and no Democrat has won the White House without winning West Virginia since 1916.
Democrats carried West Virginia in 1992 and 1996, but lost the state—and the White House–in 2000 and 2004. Hillary has predicted victory against Sen. McCain in West Virginia based on the strength of her economic message.
Given the attempts by our opponent and some in the media to declare this race over, any significant increase in voter turnout, coupled with a decisive Clinton victory, would send a strong message that Democrats remain excited and energized by Hillary’s candidacy.
In the face of grim poll numbers, the Obama campaign has attempted to dismiss today’s outcome despite the fact that Sen. Obama has outspent us on advertising, has more staff in the state, and more than double the number of offices.
He has also benefited from the support of the most high-profile endorsers in West Virginia—Sen. Jay Rockefeller and Congressman Nick Rahall. By every measure, the Obama campaign has waged an aggressive campaign in the Mountain State.
Despite being the so-called “presumptive nominee” and benefiting from these advantages, Sen. Obama has been unable to close a significant gap in the polls.
Sen. Clinton has already won Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan. With a win in West Virginia, Sen. Clinton will have once again proven her greater ability to win in the key swing states.
Is the press - and, from there voters - really buying into the Clinton’s concocted storyline? You hear the usual refrain of “a win doesn’t matter” emanating from the web and TV, but there is plenty of discussion about Obama’s glaring weakness among whites and the fact that Hillary is told to get out of the race on the eve of a major victory.
And you can bet that the talk will heat up once the results come in and the numbers play out to some obscene margin for Hillary. It may have no bearing in the delegate race - at all, period - but , unfortunately, WV does matter in the face of a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately press and a pool of white voters ready to drop Obama for any reason given them.
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“…but there is plenty of discussion about Obama’s glaring weakness among whites…”
You’re admitting the existence of that weakness, it seems. Kind of hard to get around it.
BO’s NC margin of 14 points was right in his demographic “comfort zone” — with no significant strengthening of his appeal among non-liberal whites. But then, today’s Democratic party doesn’t seem to value that constituency very much.
The party establishment will most probably succeed in wrapping this up before the convention, but the uncomfortable “ethnic” factor is here to stay.