The Buzz

• Obama heads off to his native Hawaii this morning for 9 days of R&R. And maybe to tweak his fading campaign message…

• So what is wrong with Obama? He has spent a good chunk of the last month fending off direct blows from McCain’s new attack dog Steve Schmidt, trying to make a palpable shift to the center but then getting caught in flip-flop accusations, and generally losing ground in most key battleground states and in many national polls. That precipitous drop in the polls has cooled somewhat in the last week after Obama decided to hit McCain back. But questions linger and there is an overwhelming sense that the Obama campaign is stuck in a rut. Some have argued that they have become too soft in pushing back against McCain. There has been little evidence of that old Axelrod/Plouffe magic we witnessed in the primary or in June and early July. They have yet to solidly mark McCain as an unacceptable direct link to George W. Bush and a tool of Washington who spent decades in the House and Senate without any major accomplishments on the pressing issues of today. That tack would turn the experience argument on its head. No, there has been something missing from the Obama camp lately; something big. Will they be able to turn it around and make up for the missed trail days while “The One” is chilling on a beach? Another misstep…

• The big non the Clinton front yesterday was the announcement from the Obama campaign that Bill Clinton would speak at the Denver convention after some testy “negotiations” on what day and what time the former president deserved to receive from the Dem nominee. Bill is scheduled to give a speech on Wednesday directly ahead of a speech from whomever Obama’s running mate will be. It’s a good ending for the Dems in what had been a tense issue. In the end, the Obama camp concluded that not allowing Bill to speak in Denver would create a much bigger, much more damaging story that anything he will say (or not say) in his speech.

• But the prospects for a contentious Dem convention have not entirely receded. There is still the question of how to proceed with the actual nomination vote and if Hillary supporters will be allowed to cast their personal votes for HRC as a sign of both respect and the major force that she built up during the tough primary. Grass roots Hillary backers are ready to support Obama, but not before they get a final chance to indicate their first choice in the Dem race. It will not be a pleasant run-up to Denver for the Democrats and, most importantly, for Obama.

• Strong words in an interview from Southern Baptist Convention leader Richard Land, a big name in the evangelical community and someone who is very interested in John McCain’s choice of running mate. Resigned to the fact that McCain is the GOP nominee and that the evangelical community will have to live with that, Land has now turned his eye to the Veepstakes. This is the last chance for the religious right to influence McCain and will be a huge factor in what kind of intensity and turnout religious voters bring to McCain in November. Land was especially enthusiastic about wild card Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a rabid pro-lifer and lifetime NRA member who has generated intense buzz among the grass roots conservative movement. Land also voiced support for Mitt Romney, despite the Mormon question. But there are a few names he doesn’t want to see on the ticket: Tom Ridge and Joe Lieberman.

First of all, I agree with that assessment. I think that the vice presidential choice that John McCain makes is probably the most important choice he’s going to make in this entire campaign. Because he has no room for error, no margin for doubt. If he picks a pro-choice running mate, it will confirm the unease and the mistrust that some evangelicals–and don’t forget this, social conservative Catholics–feel about McCain.

If he picks a pro-life running mate, it will help to ease their concerns and confirm to them that, while he may not have been their first choice, he may not have been their second choice, that it’s better to vote for a third class fireman than it is to allow a first class arsonist to become president.

• The name Tim Pawlenty will just not go away in the McCain Veepstakes (what does Land think of him?, with the MN Gov.’s many attributes beginning to shine on the national stage. Pawlenty is an everyman joker but also a savvy politician who has stayed away from hot button controversies in St. Paul. And his call for the GOP to focus more on issues affecting the working and middle-class rather than remaining the party of Big Business in the minds of voters could mesh well with McCain’s efforts at projecting a similar image.

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