It’s Palin?!

John McCain suddenly turned into the unpredictable maverick again - if just for a day - with his shocking and highly questionable pick of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate, announced to a packed house (!!) in Dayton earlier today. The McCain campaign managed to keep the press guessing and the exact name somewhat under wraps until just before the big event. Palin wasn’t even considered as the name to be unveiled today until a mysterious jet landed in Dayton fresh from Anchorage - and still the media didn’t fully buy it.

But enough about the nuts and bolts of how the unveiling went down; how about the sheer desperation and blatantly strained judgment that McCain has shown with this pick? Palin has been embraced by the conservative base with her pro-life, NRA member, straight talk against liberals “record” - yes, about that record. THERE IS NONE.

Palin is a golden story with an eclectic past and a real down-to-earth demeanor and lovely family (her kids are named Trig, Track, Bristol, and Willow).  She has a chance at history being another female running mate and softens the edge of a crusty McCain to some degree.

She also is an attempt from the campaign at rebutting Obama’s choke hold on change by bringing in someone who is so far outside the D.C. beltway that it took that infamous Gulfstream nine hours to get to Dayton, Ohio today. No quick commutes to schmooze with lobbyists who are still a  few hours to the East, that’s for sure.

But will voters really feel comfortable watching McCain win the election as a 72-year-old and be accompanied by a prospective Vice President (heartbeat away…) whose only real governmental experience is under two years leading the most isolated state in the union? You could make a case that perhaps she has never even been abroad (we don’t know). And McCain expects Palin to be accepted by swing voters as a person ready to step in to the number two slot in our fine federal government? That is a serious gamble.

Besides the clear play for conservatives (that’s too obvious), two things jump out at you about this selection. The first is that it’s a clear signal from the McCain campaign that age and JMac’s long history in Washington are potential problem areas ahead. Palin was the freshest face and least D.C.-connected Veep candidate among McCain’s short list of contenders.

Second, Republicans  - and McCain - are very aware of the stain that Dick Cheney left on the VP position and the dmage he has done to the GOP cause. His team must have looked at the polls and seen something there that indicated voter wariness about the power of any potential VP and a sense that Republicans were becoming the party of scary old men.

One segment of the country that has no problem with the pick are conservatives. The Republican base is ecstatic that McCain at least appeared to be listening to their cries against Lieberman and Ridge and taking their collective voice into consideration for a key moment in the campaign.

McCain may not admit that the Right pushed him into this, but  leaping at such a gamble has n other explanation. McCain really wanted Joe Lieberman or Tim Ridge at his side. He’s been tossing out their names as running mate material since the primary and consistently pushed them into greater roles in his campaign as a way of bolstering their credibility with Republicans. Conservatives never bought it, though, and McCain’s advisers were somehow able to wrangle in his independent streak and convince him that going bold for the conservatives was the only way to, well, win.

That’s the eye-opening part about the Palin decision. It is a huge gamble and a clear sign of desperation from the campaign after the successful Dem convention and their party unification. Her “record” will get skewered forever and voters may get scared away by such an inexperienced person being a heartbeat away. But McCain’s team still believe that this choice gives them the best chance to win in November.

The last deciding factor in any presidential running mate choice is how much it increases a candidate’s chances at winning the ultimate prize.  Camp McCain looked at the options, ran the numbers - and still came away with Palin. They felt they needed to rock the campaign boat considerably and rally the GOP base around them in order to overcome Obama’s huge post-Denver bounce.

So it came down to a tiny-state governor with less than two years on the job and only a decade of local experience before that. Wow…

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