Presidential Debate #1: A Preview
Leave it to the current wild and wacky presidential contest and the many crises the U.S. is juggling to inject themselves into the normally staid and tightly scheduled world of presidential debates. It’s the first one up and we’ve already had one candidate call for a bipartisan cancellation and then almost do a unilateral no-show, with McCain only coming to his senses around Noon today. Then the staggering economy infringes on the long-chosen topic for tonight - foreign policy and national security. We’re in the middle of a potential financial meltdown and the first debate is supposed to be all about the GWOT and Iraq?
As for the candidates and the campaign, ‘upheaval’ doesn’r even begin to describe what has gone on since just the 1st of August. Lead changes and momentum swings, running mates and lipstick on pigs - it’s all been there. The convulsive nature of the issues in the race and the very nature of the race itself have been amazing. It’s the sort of ting where the budget of Wasilla, Alaska is a big deal one minute, $1 trillion of potential government bailouts is on everyone’s minds the next.
And into this bubbling turmoil and utterly manic campaign steps the first debate. It should be civil, revealing and vague. Is it really possible to be all three things at one time? We’ll find that out tonight. Foreign policy and security will dominate the proceedings. Still no word on how the format will be modified to include economic talk, but we’re sure it will be there. There is no golden rule for these debates that says the specified topics shall be unchanging and cover the entire event. The commission wants to stay relevant and won’t want to be accused of ignoring new developments or the desires of voters. Domestic chatter will be present, probably as the festivities begin.
Laying out what you should watch for tonight is a bit tricky. This will be a dual debate designed for two different audiences. The issue at hand is the economy and its current tribulations, with most voters putting it the top of their list of important topics and with swing voters in economically troubled states finally starting to make their final decision for November. These are the voters that McCain and Obama need to play for non-stop until Election Day. Any move by them to keep the theme on the economy will give them a chance to win points and move the needle among a crowd tired of Iraq and ignorant about the GWOT. But drop the ball on security entirely (not a problem for McCain) and you could lose ground among voters watching for all around performance and a “presidential” character. Thus the two audiences.
What else to watch…
- Economy should come first and will be the main focus for voters and the candidates. This is a time where specifics could be discussed and challenges made, with major points to be earned among the Rust Belt crowd for the one who connects on a real and emotional level. They can’t just go through the motions
- Obama gets to do what he loves best; act as the cool frontrunner with only enough answers to wow the undecided. He can afford an average night on FP and security if he doesn’t let McCain get under his skin and hits with class on the economy. Make McCain go on the defensive with a minimalist style, not major slaps that appear forced and just plain mean. A debate is the one forum where it helps to keep yourself above the fray and on another level from your opponent.
- How will McCain handle the economy? This was supposed to be the one debate where he shines, where he blows Obama out of the water. He stinks with this format as it is; how is he supposed to take shots on the economy, too? Especially after he flubbed his big shot at bailout success in Washington yesterday. With the plan dead until next week, he must admit defeat and pledge to do better. Saying that he “saved our economy” (or so says his media folks) will sound a real sour note with informed voters. They are paying close attention to a crisis that involves their money and their daily lives.
- How do both candidates handle the surge? This is where it gets prickly for Obama. He has flip-flopped and now agrees that McCain’s surge was a “success” and has lowered violence. But he still thinks it was a bad idea and doesn’t see how it will lead to long-term stability. And he wants U.S. troops out. Does McCain hammer him on this no matter what, or is there some magic bullet that Obama can unveil to deflect the criticism? Can he tweak his message to give it more integrity? McCain will spend a lot of time building up his leadership ability and judgment based solely on the surge. He will go over the top in praising himself and in tearing down Obama. He could very well win the debate strictly because of his surge argument. But that doesn’t help him on the economy or with swing voters. They know he was right on Iraq and that he made a better call than Obama. But that’s the only spot where the trust his decision making.
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………………worth repeating here from theCBS blogging site.
Enthusiasm for both candidates has cooled, though Obama still holds a significant edge over his rival. Fifty-three percent of Obama supporters support the Democratic nominee enthusiastically, down eight points from last week. Thirty-six percent of McCain supporters back their candidate enthusiastically, a drop of 11 points from last week.
Obama leads McCain with women, moderates, Democrats, and younger voters. Sixty-one percent of those who voted for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary back the Illinois senator, while one in four former Clinton supporters back McCain.
McCain has the edge with men, conservatives, and whites, including white men and white Catholics. The race is even among white women.
Independents now break to the GOP nominee 43 percent to 39 percent. This swing group has lived up to its name: Obama had a five point edge with Independents last week, while McCain was winning their support after the GOP convention.
The poll was conducted between Sept. 21st and Sept. 24th, largely before McCain proposed delaying the debate and announced that he was suspending his campaign.
….from the same above posted polling from the CBS blogging site of the V.P. candidates:
Both Democratic vice presidential candidate Joe Biden and Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin continue to receive net overall positive ratings, though Palin is more familiar to voters. Biden’s favorable rating is 33 percent, down 5 points from last week, while his unfavorable rating is 17 percent; half of those surveyed said they didn’t know enough about Biden to have an opinion or were undecided.
Palin’s favorable rating is 37 percent, a slight decline from last week, while her unfavorable rating is 29 percent.
Women are split on the Alaska governor, with 34 percent viewing her favorably, 33 percent unfavorably, and the remainder undecided or not sure. Thirty-eight percent of white women have a favorable opinion of Palin, while 45 percent of white women with a college degree have an unfavorable opinion of her.
…predictions for the POTUS debate tonight; it will expose McCain in particular for what his campaign really stands for—the last Republican gasp for power. There isn’t enough time nor a compelling argument offered by McCain to say that he’s still The Maverick of 2000…..which, instead, royally back-fired yesterday when claiming to ’suspend’ his candidacy to put “Country First”. C.F.M.A. (’Country First My Ass).
Of course the MSM and blogging sites are giving the white-hair-old-dude another media pass….