The Buzz

• Sarah Palin appears to have hijacked the McCain campaign as of late, with her harsh attacks on Obama’s “associates” and a strange push to continue the fight in Michigan after the campaign decided to pull out of the former toss-up state last week. Palin has been a far more forceful anti-Obama voice on the campaign trail than McCain, partly due to the GOP nominee’s intense debate prep, partly due to the campaign trying to replicate that early September bump when Palin was constantly on the trail and on the offensive. So far, Palin is the main tool used by the McCain campaign in preparing to launch their post-debate negative assault on character issues. First was the “pallin’ around with terrorists” comment from Palin, since repeated at nearly every stop made by McCain’s running mate. It coincided perfectly with dire threats from Republicans that the campaign is willing to ditch working on the economy in favor of outright personal attacks and dredging up concern among voters for the controversial relationships in Obama’s political past. That list included Bill Ayers and Tony Rezko - not Jeremiah Wright. But Palin might have initiated a flip-flop on that point when she gladly discussed the Wright/Obama connection with Bill Kristol. She ran with Kristol’s assertion that Wright should be brought up, saying that “these appalling things” should be “discussed more.” Is this a campaign-approved move off message after the Obama campaign went for Keating 5? Or is it another instance where the feisty Sarah Palin has shaken off her handlers and is steering the McCain campaign’s anti-Obama strategy?

• More on the briefly mentioned effort to re-raise Keating 5 by the Obama campaign. Bringing up McCain’s messy involvement in the Keating scandal is a major cog in the campaign’s plan to preempt McCain’s leaked strategy of going after Obama on personal issues and abandoning any efforts to beat him on the economy or foreign policy. Dire warnings from GOP insiders that there will be “nonstop” hits on Obama’s past connections were met with yesterday’s ad calling McCain “erratic” on the economy and a new website and web video retelling the story of McCain and Keating 5, complete with insinuations that the scandal should raise questions among voters as to McCain’s ability to handle a shaky economy. David Plouffe defends the decision to go with Keating by saying that there “many parallels to the current crisis” - obviously an effort to get voters to pile up more skepticism about McCain and the economy. There is really no reason for the Obama camp not to raise Keating. It was a searing episode for McCain and one that was very messy and very public, initiating his anti-special interest crusade but also lurking in the background, always there as a potential weapon to be used against McCain’;s credibility. That it also ties into current issues makes it all the more attractive for Obama to use. The only problem is that Obama himself is on record from earlier in the campaign saying that he would rather not bring up Keating 5 against McCain. Of course, McCain told his campaign to pull the plug on any Rev. Wright mentions, only to see Sarah Palin break out that bomb to the world in the New York Times…

• It goes without saying that McCain and his campaign are busy thinking up strategies to shake voters up and get them to turn away from the economic doldrums and their own financial concerns. McCain is being battered by the economy and, as things stand right now, will almost certainly lose the election. The economy isn’t going away as an issue within a month and the most recent swing voter migration to Obama doesn’t appear to be short lived. It’s a nationwide and a multi-ideological phenomenon, with big boosts for the Dem nominee driving his success from Virginia to New Mexico. The only job for McCain in tomorrow’s debate and for the rest of the race is to turn the dialogue away from the economy and back to it being a referendum on Barack Obama. The superficial boost for McCain after choosing Palin - and it was on a very shaky foundation - occurred mainly because of the contrast with Obama that the pick and the McCain-Palin rhetoric cemented in the minds of voters. Obama became a haughty lightweight who didn’t understand real Americans. Of course, the economic collapse then turned the tables and shined the “out-of-touch” spotlight on McCain. Their goal now is to build on his long-ago boost and paint an even starker image of what McCain-Palin see Obama as, and somehow get voters to see the same picture.

• Is Virginia turning blue? That’s what VA Republicans see and what the latest polls in the race clearly lay out. McCain is losing his grip on the commonwealth, one of several red states that are souring on McCain-Palin in the face of economic crisis. GOP fears in Virginia are not only over how strong Obama’s organization and pull in the commonwealth is, but how little attention is being paid there by the McCain campaign, even as VA becomes a serious toss-up on all election maps. McCain and Palin have appeared in Virginia just once, a startling contrast to Obama-Biden’s seemingly constant presence in the last month. McCain ads have also been pulled from the D.C. TV market that reaches into most of Northern Virginia’s suburbs - a swing voter hotbed. There is a general sense that the McCain campaign was lulled into complacency by looking at the old electoral maps and by the sugar rush that boosted the campaign early last month - and then sent them spiraling into their current malaise. But some in the Virginia GOP see the troubles for McCain as being partly out of the campaign’s control. The economy in the commonwealth, like the rest of the nation, is the most important issue for swing voters, and it’s an issue where McCain just isn’t gaining traction.

• The Obama campaign is looking beyond Virginia and is intent on staying competitive in a host of red states that are traditionally not even on the electoral radar of Democrats in presidential contests. Virginia is swiftly becoming a lean Obama stronghold, while states like Indiana, North Carolina and even Georgia are receding into toss-up status from safe locales for McCain as little as a few weeks ago. Obama wants to prove the doubters of his red state strategy wrong, and the economy  - the only plank that Obama can run on in red states - is providing the perfect pitch to angry swing voters unable to trust McCain to handle the ongoing fiscal crisis.

• Michelle Obama will travel to North Carolina for a campaign event with military families in Jacksonville. The campaign has been using Michelle consistently over the past weeks as a reliable emissary to women voters and more moderate swing demographics. She will be battling for attention with Sarah Palin, who will also be in the unthinkable battleground of NC on Tuesday.

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