Yet another lame sports analogy used to describe the plight of John McCain as he heads into the second presidential debate tonight in Nashville. McCain is reeling from a snowballing financial crisis and watching national and battleground polls light up for Obama, causing more than a few trigger-happy pundits - and many ashen-faced Republicans - to call the race for Obama with almost a month to go until election day.

The McCain-Palin team is taking shots from every angle, getting ripped by the media and voters alike for mishandling the economic crisis, McCain’s increasingly angry public rhetoric, and the campaign’s well-publicized decision to dig out every dirty campaign trick in the book (and some freshly minted by McCain…) to attack Obama, going so far as to all him a “liar” and accuse him of having “unrepentant terrorist” bankroll his political beginnings. It has become a campaign of desperation willing to try anything to spark a new dialogue within the race that manages to focus attention on the character and integrity of Barack Obama, not o the faltering economy.

The promises to play hard and fight dirty from the McCain campaign have sparked an instant reaction from the Obama camp. Counterattacks against McCain for his own brand of “lies” and the two decades-old Keating Five scandal  have already surfaced from the Dem nominee. Aided by the daily slaughters on Wall Street and surging tension among ordinary Americans about their own financial future, Obama has been wildly successful in deflecting attention away from the various references to Bill Ayers and Jeremiah Wright and keeping the economic pressure on McCain. Accusations from Obama that McCain is trying to “change the subject” from the economy and that he doesn’t “understand” how to get out of the current crisis have played into the immovable skepticism that voters have cultured about McCain on the most important issue of this campaign. As much skepticism as they had about John Kerry’s ability to relate to “real” Americans. As much skepticism about Obama’s ability to do the same. The economy has become McCain’s “bitter” comment; it has become his helmet on a tank moment. It’s very bad…

Bad enough for McCain that he can’t shift the needle in the other direction in one town hall debate? Not yet. Tonight’s Nashville showdown will go a long way to telling us how much of a shot John McCain still has left to win this race. There is no more time to let Sarah Palin take up the cause and hog the attention, spitting out her “middle-class” frontier charm. The VP fight ended with a whisper last week, leaving voters uninspired and more eager then ever to size up the real candidates two more times. The spotlight of expectations and the pressure to deliver will once again be on John McCain tonight.

The McCain campaign knows the importance if this showdown. You’re hearing precious little of the usual pre-debate expectations setting and hyperbole about how the other candidate is so much better and will have all the pressure to perform well because he’s just so gosh darn good and has studied the issue so gosh darn much and has so many gosh darn friends in the debate city, etc. This is McCain’s game, a town hall format that forces a gangly Obama to roam around a stage, looking all-too stuffy and primed to ramble, while the fighter pilot  stalks around like he’s ready to go in for the kill with his snappy quips and killer lines. It’s a stage perfectly set for McCain, and his campaign knows it.

And McCain needs to perform like he’s under pressure, understand the stakes and cheerfully pounce on Obama’s every statement. This is no time for awkwardly trying to bring Bill Ayers or Rezko into the discussion - but he will. He will have every opportunity to  at least attempt to reassure concerned swing voters that he understands their economic pain and will fight (loved those old lines from St. Paul…) for their, and the country’s, financial security. High taxes and big government need to be on the table for McCain - mostly because they’re the only truthful arguments he has left to hit Obama with. Hurtling mud up to where Obama currently sits is destined to have little effect in the face of angry voters who already have a pre-determined skepticism of your ability to handle an issue - the economy - that now ranks as by far the most important facet of this race.

Another hint for McCain: The Swiftboat ads against Kerry started airing in August of 2004. We’re now a month out from election day, and still there are no coherent and relentless efforts to go negative on Obama. We thought we saw it with the celebrity theme in August. That bombed. We thought a consistent anti-Obama message formed when Palin was named McCain’s running mate and the new team started hammering their opponent as someone who wouldn’t bring “real change” and who was secretly cynical and perturbed by Middle America. Now it’s October, and up comes the barrel of mud that is Bill Ayers, Jeremiah Wright and Obama’s “lies.” All of this in the midst of what many economists are calling  the worst financial meltdown since the Depression.

Now how is that really supposed to win?

M.P.