McCain campaign: Race is “competetive, McCain is “SURGING”

While most national and battleground polls continue to show a virtual dead-end for McCain come Tuesday, the McCain campaign is not buying it, instead tweaking the pundits and presenting a cohesive public and private consensus on the race that it may be turning in the GOP nominee’s favor.

Thanks to some actual confidence about the close of the horserace and internal measures taken by the likes of Steve Schmidt and Mark Salter, the private rumblings and concerns  voiced by innumerable McCain “advisers” in recent weeks have shut down, replaced by cautious optimism about their own polling and the select few outside numbers that show even a hint of a bump for McCain. It’s all about cherry picking the numbers for the McCain camp right about now.

Putting a more public face on the McCain campaign’s belief in a surge for their guy is a new state of the race memo from campaign manager Rick Davis. After saying he was”jazzed” about the campaign this morning, Davis set out several talking points -  and a bit of questionable data -coming to the conclusion that McCain is on his way to a comeback and that he is “surging in the final 72 hours.”

Davis points to the large crop of undecided voters still out there according to a new Gallup poll as ripe for conversion to McCain, as well as tagging what he called “tighter” polls in several battlegrounds, including Iowa and some Rust Belt states. Interesting that Pennsylvania is mentioned by Davis - nearly all of the latest polls out of Keystone have Obama leading by double-digits or just under. No weakness there…

If your television is tuned to cable news as frequently as ours are here at campaign headquarters, you have seen the pundits say John McCain and his campaign are done. And, if you’ve followed this race since the beginning, this is clearly a song you’ve heard before. I wanted to take some time today to give you some insight on the state of the race as we see it.

An AP poll released this morning revealed a very telling fact: ONE out of every SEVEN voters is undecided. That means, if 130 million voters turn out on Tuesday, 18.5 million of them have yet to make up their mind. With that many votes on the table and the tremendous movement we’ve seen in this race, I believe we are in a very competitive campaign. 

Davis expounds on battleground state and regional developments…

Iowa - Our numbers in Iowa have seen a tremendous surge in the past 10 days. We took Obama’s lead from the double digits to a very close race. That is why you see Barack Obama visiting the state in the final days, trying to stem his losses. It is too little, too late. Like many other Midwestern states, Iowa is moving swiftly into McCain’s column.

The Southwest - It is no secret that Republican candidates in the Southwest have to focus on winning over enough Latino and Hispanic voters in Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado to carry them to victory. John McCain has overcome challenges Republicans face, and has made up tremendous ground in these states with these voters. For these voters, the choice has become clear, and you have seen a big change in the numbers. John McCain is now winning enough voters to perform within the margin of error - putting these states within reach.

Colorado - Barack Obama tried to outspend our campaign in Colorado during the early weeks of October and finish off our candidate in Colorado. However, after our visit early this week, we saw a tremendous rebound in our poll position, and Colorado is back on the map.

Ohio and Pennsylvania - Everyone knows that vote rich Ohio and Pennsylvania will be key battlegrounds for this election. Between the two: 41 electoral votes and no candidate has gotten to the White House without Ohio. Senator McCain and Governor Palin have been campaigning non-stop in these key battleground states and tonight Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has pumped up our campaign at a rally in Columbus. Our position in these states is strong and undecided voters continue to have a very favorable impression of our candidate.

Then Davis wraps it up with the bottom line from the McCain team…

All the major polls have shown a tightening in the race and a significant narrowing of the numbers. In John McCain’s typical pattern, he is closing strong and surprising the pundits. We believe this race is winnable, and if the trajectory continues, we will surpass the 270 Electoral votes needed on Election Night.

 In short: the McCain campaign is surging in the final 72 hours. Our grassroots campaign is vibrant and communicating to voters in a very powerful way. Our television presence is strong. And, we have a secret ingredient - A candidate who will never quit and who will never stop fighting for you and for your families.

The campaign also plans a major ad blitz both nationally and in swing states as well as what Davis describes as a “Final Barnstorm” on Monday that sends both McCain and Palin to 14 battleground states for their final trail events and rallies.

Throw out the facts; there’s no getting the McCain camp down about their current predicament. Is this confidence unfounded or a prescient foreshadowing of Tuesday’s events?

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