Poll Trouble For Palin On Eve of Possible 2012 Blitz

(ABC)

 

Two new polls released as Sarah Palin launches another intense media tour leading up to the release of her memoir on Tuesday indicate potential pitfalls if the former vice presidential candidate uses the attention this week as a springboard to a 2012 presidential campaign, as expected.

A CNN poll finds less than 30 percent of Americans think Palin is qualified to be President, a number mirrored in a simultaneous ABC News/Washington Post poll that shows well under half of the country views Palin favorably or feels she is qualified to serve in the White House.

The polls show that most Republicans, especially the conservative base, see Palin as a beloved figure who can essentially do no wrong and whose qualifications matter little, although a vast majority of Republicans say she is eminently qualified. This is in stark contrast to Democrats and even independents, most of whom dislike Palin personally, will not vote for her if she does run in 2012 and overwhelmingly say she is not qualified to serve the nation as President.

From the ABC/WaPo poll…

Today 43 percent of Americans express a favorable opinion of Palin overall, while 52 percent see her unfavorably. Favorability is the most basic measure of a public figure’s popularity; in politics, where majorities win, it’s trouble when it goes negative, as it’s been for Palin since October 2008.

Intensity is against her as well: considerably more see her “strongly” unfavorably, 34 percent, than strongly favorably, 20 percent.

Fifty-three percent say they definitely would not vote for Palin if she were to run for president in 2012; that compares with 9 percent who say they’d definitely support her, while the rest, 37 percent, would consider it. (For comparison, in a 2006 ABC/Post poll fewer flatly ruled out Hillary Clinton, 42 percent, and fewer still wouldn’t consider John McCain, 28 percent.)

Palin moreover fails a basic hurdle on the road to the White House, were she to choose to take it: Just 38 percent of Americans see her as qualified to serve as president; 60 percent think she’s not qualified for the job.

From CNN…

According to the poll, 28 percent of Americans say Palin is qualified to run the White House, with seven in 10 saying the former Alaska governor and 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee is not qualified.

The survey indicates that a majority of Republicans, 54 percent, feel Palin is qualified, with 44 percent indicating she isn’t. But only 29 percent of independent voters questioned feel she is qualified to serve as president, with 68 percent disagreeing. According to the poll, nine in 10 Democrats feel Palin is not qualified.

These numbers spell trouble for Palin’s future as a national political leader, though it reinforces her superstar status among conservative Republicans. While the figures showing less than 30 percent of American view Palin favorably, the most damaging data for the former governor concerns her qualifications for the job of Commander in Chief. These are figures that probably will not go away in only a few years and almost automatically exclude Palin as a viable choice among many voters, most notably swing independents. Qualifications and experience are vital attributes for these Americans, even more so as their enthusiasm for President Obama and the “change” theme wanes.

What is also clear is that Palin’s media tour and burgeoning celebrity status - fed by her book and appearance on Oprah this week - will not help bolster her presidential credentials. She cannot fight what some may consider a cruel stereotype by feeding the opposition with her own manufactured celebrity and pop-style takes on political issues of the day.

So either Palin is being honest when she says 2012 is not in her future, or she is making another series of excruciating mistakes that will lead to another political failure on an even grander stage.

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