The first big break for the media in the Obama Veepstakes came tonight as NBC News somehow was able to confirm the rumors that Evan Bayh and Tim Kaine are not in contention to be Obama’s running mate, having been among the handful of names personally called by the Dem nominee either today or this week.

Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh and Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine have been told by Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama’s campaign they will not be his vice presidential choice, NBC News reported on Friday, quoting sources.

NBC News quoted unidentified sources as saying that Bayh and Kaine were informed they were out of the running.

Until we have the official Veep name, questions will immediately turn to why either Bayh or Kaine weren’t the final pick. Was Bayh’s Iraq war exuberance too controversial? Did Kaine blab too much as he made the short list or was it just his minimal record that turned away Obama?

Questions, questions…

This leads us to update our Veepstakes board tonight.

1.  Joe Biden - Not a word from the usually chatty Biden could be an indicator (9:30 PM - Biden looks increasingly to be the clear choice here. Only a major surprise pick will derail his chances)
2. Evan Bayh - Hanging on in the race.
3. Chet Edwards - Dark horse boosted by Pelosi’s endorsement, making waves with multiple chats with media outside his Waco home. Then again, he’d probably shut up if he were the guy.
4. Kathleen Sibelius - A woman would tick off some Hillary fanatics while soothing others. And she has been ignored by the media - just like the campaign likes it.
5. ??? - Fill in the blank here with Hillary, Gore, Bloomberg, Elvis…

Back and better than ever…

• No news coming from the campaign trail even comes close to touching the Veepstakes for sheer buzz and excitement. Rumors and speculation had been swirling (about as much as Fay was swirling off of our coast this weekend)  for weeks about  the specifics surrounding the running mate picks of both McCain and Obama. “Target” dates cam and went without a word and without even a clear favorite. No longer. The New York Times reports that people within the Obama campaign have confirmed that a day this week will be when the Dem nominee announces his VP choice with an “elaborate” series of rollout events and moves set to create some buzz around a name that will probably be no surprise (sorry, Hillary supporters…). Meanwhile, the McCain camp is eagerly listening to the Obama Veepstakes chatter and smiling broadly that they managed to hold out long enough to let their hated opponent make the first move. Nevertheless, thee campaign has admitted that they also have a timetable picked out for unveiling McCain’s final, pro-life, Veep pick. It is set to be August 29, a day after Obama’s Denver nomination speech. Talk about fighting for attention…

• “When” had become as fascinating a debate and question as the all-important, “who,” but that comes to an end with both sides setting a general time frame for the Veep announcements. So who will Obama pick? He;s up first and in need of some fresh energy in a campaign that has amazingly become stuck in neutral and teetering on the edge of disaster. Unfortunately for Dems, his running mate pick will not bring out the fireworks. It’s down to Bayh, Biden or Kaine - and the VA Governor is the easy pick (it would appear) since the first two names have been given convention speaking slots on the Veep’s night already. That could be a smoke screen from the Obama campaign, but we’ll side with the CW and pick Kaine. He’s not a bad choice - strong moderate record, potentially lock up a swing state and is a more “common man” in appearance than another Senator would be (although Kaine is Ivy League material). But his name has been bandied about for weeks now and his selection would be a bit of a yawner for most voters as well as the media. And the liberal base will surely raise a temporary ruckus over Kaine’s stated pro-life position and those moderate tendencies we mentioned.

• On to McCain: His innocent floating of a pro-choice Veep was strafed down by the religious right; only a strict pro-lifer will be on the GOP ticket. Word is that McCain himself was set on either Joe Lieberman or Lindsey Graham for his Veep, but Lieberman’s politics and Graham’s way-too-close relationship with McCain (as well as eerily similar resumes) made them impossible choices. Romney and Pawlenty are said to be the final two viable names on the McCain short list. Cantor and Portman were merely interesting names to chat about and get the conservative base really excited. But their positions as mere House members, as well as Portman’s ties to the Bush administration, make them unlikely picks. So Mitt and Pawlenty are the last two standing. Very few leaks about preference between these two have come out of the McCain camp; Pawlenty is well known as a friend of McCain and thus always favored, but a Romney selection could soothe ruffled conservatives (not evangelicals, though) and put to rest any worries about base turnout. It’s truly up in the air.

• Palpable worries from Democrats about how Obama and his campaign are responding to McCain’s incessant attacks have forced a major shift in strategy right out of the gate following Obama’s Hawaiian vacation last week. With Obama’s team is also skittish over the success of McCain’s negative strategy and the apparent traction of Corsi’s “Obama Nation” fable, making them open to looking over what had been a playbook full of “above the fray” moves and a plan that would have McCain portrayed as an out of touch meanie who was basically background noise to Obama’s coronation. The polls and reaction from voters makes it clear that Axelrod and Plouffe miscalculated and underestimated the GOP’s ability to stoke real or false doubts about Ohama and let them fester with voters. So Obama has tweaked his stump rhetoric to take on McCain directly and sow some character and judgment doubts of his own. The fiery speech at the Orlando VFW convention this morning is something you never would have heard from Obama as little as a month ago.

• A central cog of Obama’s strategy to win over moderate evangelicals is falling apart. Obama has always been unabashedly pro-choice, but that message has been consistently muted by his campaign in that effort to portray the Dem nominee as at least open to pro-life ideals in order to get some key November votes. But some major faux pas’, like the very public one last weekend at Rick Warren’s Saddleback forum, have turn off the very voter bloc he wanted to impress. Instead of winning over evangelicals with talk of “reducing abortions,” it only brings to the surface the very strong differences in position between Obama and religious voters, not to mention getting Obama into the tight spot he entered at the Warren event, being forced to clumsily wriggle his way out of a direct answer to the eternal question of when life begins. These mishaps and te general closeness of the election is starting to bring up some buyer’s remorse among pro-Obama evangelicals. While his numbers with religious voters are still better than most Dem presidential candidates, there is a danger of a steep decline as November looms and it gets more difficult to gloss over his abortion stance.

• News out of the Denver preparations is that Al Gore has officially been invited to deliver a rousing address just before Obama goes on stage to accept the official party nomination on the final night of the convention at Invesco. Yes, Gore will be the warm-up act for Obama before a screaming mass of 70,000 Dems in Denver. And Hillary stews…

Tim Kaine’s chances for Veep just shot way up as the announcement that both Evan Bayh and Joe Biden have been given speaking slots on Wednesday of the Dem convention.

Kaine still has yet to receive a formal slot to speak; something that would certainly be a done deal if not for his inclusion on the super short list for Obama. Either way, Kaine won’t be left off the convention roster .

This development begs the question; is the Bayh and Biden move simply to throw off the media and inject confusion as to who is the ultimate choice? Surely the Obama camp knew that Kaine would instantly become the hot name as the two other main contenders are given official Denver slots on the night the VP will speak.

Gotta find out if this is a smoke screen…

• The ongoing conflict between Russia and Georgia has certainly made its mark on the presidential race. Both candidates have used the fighting and Russia’s invasion to tag the other with whatever unflattering image on foreign policy works best for them. McCain has been uber-hawkish, taunting both Russia and Obama over the issue. McCain accuses Obama of playing politics with the Georgia crisis (which means McCain just played politics by accusing his opponent of playing politics…), chastising him for failing to understand the “importance” of a “bipartisan concern.” Indeed, the Obama campaign has used some of McCain’s bold statements and gut reactions to label him as “reckless” and “shooting from the hip,” with Obama adviser Susan Rice going so far as to complaining that McCain’s repeated comments on the conflict may be hurting chances for a ceasefire between the two countries. Either way, this has become the new central focus in the ongoing foreign policy battles between McCain and Obama. Like Iraq, both sides have presented very different views on how to handle a crisis and how to deal with a rising Russia. Question is, will voters understand the issue and who will they side with in their own gut reaction?

• McCain’s efforts to insert himself into the Georgian drama has shined a light on the past and current lobbyist ties that his foreign policy adviser, Randy Scheunemann, has. Scheunemann has worked for various governments and corporations for years as a lobbyist in Washington, including a job for the government of Georgia up until this March. That role is being especially scrutinized as McCain ramps up the rhetoric against Russia and prepares to send his own independent emissaries - Joe Lieberman and Lindsay Graham - to Georgia. McCain’s relationship with Scheunemann goes back to the 2000 campaign where ha also served as JMac’s foreign policy adviser.

• Bothered by public concerns over McCain’s knowledge of the internet and technology, his campaign has released what they are calling a “major plan” on tech issues that has been dubbed “John McCain and American Innovation.” It’s basically a tax and jobs plan disguised as something relating directly to the internet and tech usage, with a reiteration of McCain’s opposition to any “net neutrality” laws - laws supported by Democrats and internet advocates - thrown in. The plan also backs up McCain’s past statements rejecting taxes on internet sales and announces another new job training effort, this one devoted to R&D workers in tech.This is clearly just a slapped-together response to McCain’s perceived technophobia and news that he doesn’t use the internet. The plan won;t draw in any tech-minded voters - they’re all voting for Obama or Bob Barr.

• The status of Tim Kaine as Obama’s Veep as bounced around considerably sine the announcement that Mark Warner, former VA Governor, would deliver the keynote address at the Dem convention. Conventional wisdom would say that Kaine is done as a contender after another Virginian was named to such a major speaking slot. And rumors out of the Kaine camp have the Governor acting “glum” since the Warner news. But there is a glowing profile in the New York Times this morning (Kaine is a bipartisan “bridge builder”) and the fact that his schedule is being handled through the Obama campaign. The buzz is growing for Kaine every minute.

• Liberals distressed by Kaine’s pro-choice ideology and Bayh’s spotty record on Iraq are somehow latching onto Joe Biden as the “perfect”running mate for Obama. Or so says The Nation…

• Chicago’s Sun-Times has confirmed that Oprah will join her good friend has Obama accepts the Dem nomination in Denver. She will be at the convention and present during his Invesco acceptance speech, but no plans to actually have her on stage next to Barack. Will she get a larger role now that her presence has been confirmed?

• Plans from the Obama campaign to push hard for select Southern states are humming along as well as could be expected. While states like Ohio and Pennsylvania are still the major prizes to get to 270, the Obama team is serious about gunning for red states like North Carolina and even Georgia (not to mention their strong Western strategy). The Tar Heel state has been hit hard by the Obama effort, getting $2 million in ad spending and the beginnings of a grass roots outreach effort for October and November. And spirits are high despite polls showing Obama trailing McCain in NC. The Obama state campaign is optimistic about their prospects for this fall.

“It’s not that big a stretch for Barack Obama to win North Carolina this year,” state campaign director Marc Farinella told reporters in a conference call featuring Gov. Mike Easley. “This is a battleground state and we’re going to win it.”

• John McCain portrays himself as a candidate with strong ethics and someone who stands opposed to the big-money politics that has come to dominate presidential campaigns, but a peek by the Washington Post at some of McCain’s more interesting donations yields some questions about the integrity of that promise. A story in WaPO today finds that McCain mega-bundler Harry Sargent - also a close personal and political friend to FLA Gov. Crist- has been doing an excellent job of bundling loads of smaller donations and funneling them into the McCain campaign in lieu of Sargent’s own cash. But the real intrigue begins when you look at some of the names and, more importantly, the occupations of Sargent’s donor groups. The records indicate that a Rite Aid store manager and a mechanic both gave either $2300 or $4600 to McCain via Sargent’s “bundling” activities. Sargent also had worked to raise funds for the campaigns of Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani last year. Amazingly, some of the same folks who gave to both Hillary and Rudy also turned up on Sargent’s list of donors to McCain this March. And every donor gave the maximum amount allowed. This is obviously a report that could prove troublesome to McCain. But the campaign itself is shrugging it off, saying that they will look into potential problems with donations only “when flags are raised.”

• Something that slipped through the cracks yesterday was an announcement by the Obama campaign that Hillary Clinton would be back on the trail - solo - campaigning for the Dem nominee in Las Vegas this Friday and in Florida later in the month.  Isn’t a Hilary announcement newsworthy anymore? Anyhow, HRC will be out on the trail for the first time sine inside reports from the Obama campaign revealed that Hillary was officially off the Veep short list and that her only role in the campaign would be as a roving surrogate and a big speaking engagement at the Denver convention. Ad then there’s always Bill and his bizarre interview with ABC. That’s another instance this year that she’ll be facing the heat in a messy situation created by her husband.

• There is an Op-ed by Hillary in today’s Wall Street Journal that takes on the Bush administration for “crisis exploitation.”

• Today is the day for Evan Bayh as Obama comes to northern Indiana for hours of campaigning and chat time with the IN Senator. The speculation that Bayh would be introduced as Obama’s running mate was wild last week and over the weekend. And why not? Obama was making a previously unscheduled stop in Indiana over the course of two days (he arrived last night) for a big rally with Bayh. But the rumors are not true and, barring some major last-second change in plans, Bayh won’t be on the ticket as of this evening. But it is an indication of just how high Bayh has soared in the Veepstakes and how he is considered a vital tool by the Obama campaign in trying to win Indiana from the GOP.

• Another effort to change Michelle Obama’s image? She is meeting with military spouses in Norfolk, VA today in a well-publicized campaign event. But is Michelle’s raucous rep even a problem for the campaign at this point? That seems so…June.

Unlike the excitable Tim Kaine, Obama Veep contender Evan Bayh has been following the ground rules for the Veepstakes and has generally kept quiet on his status as a member of Obama’s short list and a name frequently mentioned as a perfect fit for the Dem nominee.

The silence ended today, however, as Bayh finally was pushed to answer the speculation that is heating up over Obama’s strange visit to northern Indiana tomorrow for a big rally with every Hoosier’s favorite Senator.

Bayh made some comments to the Indy Star this afternoon.

Asked if he will be Obama’s vice presidential choice, Bayh said; “I have no idea. You’d have to ask him.”

Bayh will be introducing Obama at Wednesday’s town hall meeting in Elkhart, but said he knows of no plans for a private meeting with Obama, even though both men are flying into northern Indiana tonight. The length of Obama’s visit here — he arrives at about 6:30 p.m. and isn’t scheduled to leave until about 3:30 p.m. Wednesday — had acceleratd already flying rumors that Bayh will be Obama’s choice.

But Bayh said he believed the campaign was trying to add another stop in Indiana, accounting for the length of the visit.

Bayh said his wife, Susan; twin sons Nick and Beau; and his father, former Sen. Birch Bayh, will not be joining him on this trip — one additional sign that the vice presidential announcement likely won’t come Wednesday.

In fact, Bayh said that while he has “no idea” what Obama’s timeline is for announcing his running mate, “I’m absolutely confident there will be no announcement tomorrow. I guess the best way to put it is, if there’s an announcement tomorrow, I’d be as surprised as anybody else.”

The length of time Obama is set to spend in the Hoosier State is a bit odd, but it by no means indicates that Bayh will be named as the running mate tomorrow.

The Obama camp wants to wait until right before the convention in a game of chicken with McCain to see if their GOP opponent cracks first and names his Veep before Obama. They want to give it as much time as possible in order to pick after McCain. The publicity capital gained from a late pick pays impressive dividends.

• The Veepstakes for both candidates has officially hit its stride as this hyper-speed campaign rolls on. What was once penciled in automatically every year for convention week or thereabouts has shifted weeks earlier this year, with talk heating up about imminent picks on both sides. But, contrary to what we were told last week, it is the Obama campaign that has now rushed to the forefront of the Veep process with a flurry of activity around his impending choice that threatens to again upstage John McCain and what had been planned as a pre-Olympcs announcement for his running mate. But Obama has hit the ground running after arriving back in the U.S. following his overseas trip, visiting with his top Veep vetters and campaign advisers instructing staffers to move the vetting process into high speed on a select number of contenders. What appears to be the final short list for Obama’s Veep looks like this: VA Gov. Tim Kaine up top, followed by Evan Bayh and Joe Biden. A scattering of names once thought to be the core group of candidates - Hillary, Sam Nunn, etc. - have been tossed aside for now, waiting for either a last-minute implosion from the final three or a change of heart from Obama himself.

• About Hillary as Obama’s Veep: NYT’s Adam Nagourney delves further into that faint possibility and decides that it is basically an impossibility at this late stage in the Veepstakes. Despite continued resistance from rabid Hillary supporters and the reluctance of her huge donor base to give the Obama campaign any of their cash unless HRC gets more “respect,” the initial wave of deafening buzz that Hillary just had to be on the fall ticket has subsided with every new poll that shows Hillary’s base warming to Obama and the realization that choosing Hillary just brings too much unwanted and unnecessary baggage to the campaign - like Bill. So where’s the proof that Hillary’s Veep dream has faded? Obama staffers haven’t asked for any more documents from her to go towards the vetting process and there has virtually no communication between Hillary and her people and Obama or his campaign about the prospect of a joint ticket. This just isn’t going to happen.

• But McCain;s search for a running mate hasn’t completely skulked out of the news. A timetable is still set within the campaign to name a Veep before the opening ceremonies in Beijing, meaning the only name that appears possible to finish vetting and putting the final touches in place for must be Romney. Conventional wisdom has the variety of last-second names thrown out by the McCain camp - Jindal, John Thune, Rob Portman, etc. - are simply smoke screens aimed to keep nerves on edge regarding the eventual choice (that would be Mitt). But there is still some simmering resentment over Romney emanating from some unlikely locales. The evangelical community has especially hit back hard on a potential McCain-Romney ticket, warning the GOP and its nominee that such a fall ticket would make it very hard to drum up grass roots excitement in the evangelical community so important to Republican success in the presidential race and beyond. Romney’s mixed record on social issues like abortion and gay marriage (disregarding his Right Wing screeds during the primary) is a particular sore spot - and then there’s the whole Mormon thing. The Religious Right won;t admit it, but Mitt’s choice of religion is a top worry among their followers, especially in some of the rural red states that Obama could very well put into play come November. Add to that a scathing editorial in the Wall Street Journal condemning Romney’s universal health care plan in Massachusetts, and you get some nasty crunch time concerns for the vetters and advisers at McCain HQ.

• Now its once again time for McCain to become the unlucky candidate who commits the flip-flop du jour, leaving Obama’s overseas wiggles in the dust. McCain broke the conservative code when he told ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday that “there is nothing that’s off the table” when it came to increasing the payroll tax to keep Social Security solvent. Ohhhh…. Naturally, this brought a swift attack from the anti-tax Club For Growth. -

On Sunday, on ABC’s This Week with George Stephanopoulos, McCain said this about a payroll tax increase: “There is nothing that’s off the table. I have my positions, and I’ll articulate them. But nothing’s off the table. I don’t want tax increases. But that doesn’t mean that anything is off the table.”

The conservative, or rather anti-tax, Club for Growth was quick to pounce, with an open letter to the senior senator from Arizona calling his comments “shocking, because you have been adamant in your opposition to raising taxes under any circumstances.“

• We’re a long way from those early postulations that Mike Huckabee could be a good running mate for McCain. Now a well-paid Fox News “political analyst.” Huck is free to sound of on the McCain campaign’s missteps and misfires. He let ‘er rip on FNC recently. 

What is wrong with the McCain campaign?

HUCKABEE: Well, I think he missed an opportunity. Instead of having some fun with it and showing sort of a buoyant ‘hey, do what you’ve got to do, let Obama go play basketball, I’m solving problems.’ Do it with tongue and cheek.

Frankly, I thought he looked more like Bob Dole in the last days of the 1996 campaign saying ‘look at the record, look at the record,’ and there was some anger and sense of frustration there.

He shouldn’t show that. He needs to show that nothing is getting to him, it’s rolling off his back, and I think he missed an opportunity to do that last week.

An uber-presser with journalists by Obama adviser Plouffe produced a key nugget of intel on the mindset going into Obama’s decision on a Veep. No names popped up, but Plouffe gave an indication of the direction that the candidate and his selection committee will be going in searching for a running-mate.

Responding to a reporter’s question, Plouffe said that Obama would choose someone “qualified to be president and someone who’ll be a partner in governing.”

“We certainly don’t want to pick someone who will hurt,” he said.

He then referred to President Bush’s choice of Dick Cheney as any example of a pick that didn’t help Bush politically but didn’t hurt him either.

And he noted that the pick of Al Gore didn’t help Bill Clinton win Tennessee in 1992; without Gore, Clinton would have won anyway.

So no outright regional panders like Bill Nelson or Tim Kaine (VA’s Webb is still in the mix on those “qualifications”)?  Interesting to see if almighty Hillary is seen as something more than just a help in some of her states.

One name coming to mind that fits both a regional/state/demo draw and a “qualified”  VP consideration is Evan Bayh. While his blatant willingness to accept the job is a bit unseemly (asked if he would accept a hypothetical Obama offer, Bayh flatly said “yes”), Bayh brings a solid and likable moderate to the ticket and would likely cement Indiana for the Dems.

Keep watching…