FOX CALLS OHIO FOR OBAMA, ONLINE SOURCES JOIN IN. MCCAIN’S PATH TO VICTORY VIRTUALLY ELIMINATED.

With Ohio and New Mexico now firmly in the Obama column, McCain would need to win at least one remaining blue state on the map on top of the rest of the red states leaning towards Obama in order to reach 27 electoral votes. Obama may lose Virginia, but his gains in the pure battlegrounds won by Bush in 2004 will be more than enough to make up for it. Florida and North Carolina would add to his totals if/when they are called - probably before 11 PM.

The atmosphere inside the McCain campaign is now dead, conservatives online and in the media are already talking about dealing with an Obama presidency and chatting up prospects in 2012. The tighter race than expected in Virginia had buoyed GOP hopes for the night, but any optimism is snuffed out with the huge loss of Bush’s 2004 winner and the backyard of “Joe the Plumber”: Ohio.

Obama seized the Buckeye State on the economy and with over 40% of undecideds breaking for him in the last week. That demo needed to go for McCain by enormous margins to produce a Republican victory. Working-class and Hillary voters also helped push Obama over the top. Taxes made virtually no difference in the race…

The voter assistance organization Election Protection’s toll-free hotline has already received well over 50,000 calls about potential voting problems today. The organization has set up the phone hotline for voters to report polling problems they’ve experienced and to check on things like wait times at polling locations.

EP notes that there seems to be disproportionate problems in the battleground state of Ohio, with the Cleveland and Columbus areas being two hotspots.

Voters in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) and Franklin County (Columbus) are reporting that:

• after voting from same address for years, they suddenly have disappeared from the list at polls
• they received a voter registration card/notice of registration and precinct, as recently as this fall — yet are not on the poll registry
• they are on the statewide database (DB) but not on the poll registry

Ohio has seen other problems, too. Intimidation reports are popping up across the usual partisan regions - inner cities for Obama and rural and conservative swaths for McCain. Several counties are also reporting large numbers of names missing from voter rolls.

The election has been clean so far, but you can bet that the campaign lawyers are filing reports like these from across the country in case this gets tight. Small hiccups can have big consequences in battlegrounds.

Below you’ll find a look some of the hottest battlegrounds of tomorrow’s election. We look at the last reputable poll for each state, some info on what the candidates need to win, and a pick for the region of each state to keep an eye on as the returns come in.

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Colorado - 49-44 Obama, Mason-Dixon/Denver Post
Obama has been ahead in Colorado for weeks and appears to be losing only minimal ground to McCain with his mini-bump in all battlegrounds. This is a state, like Virginia, where the blue shift is all about demographics. More moderate/Democrats are moving into CO, making the rural and conservative counties surrounding Denver less of a factor. McCain sees this in play, but that could be too optimistic.
REGION TO WATCH: Southern Denver suburbs, especially S of Littleton.

Florida - 47-45 Obama - Quinnipiac
Right up there with Ohio and Pennsylvania as the ultimate battleground this year. Obama has just recently soared into the Sunshine lead on the heels of the economic crisis and McCain’s September comments in Florida about “strong fundamentals.� The economy is huge in FL, with foreclosures and a dying retail/service industry hurting the state. Both sides have expert ground games, but Obama has the street and GOTV props to keep the enthusiasm going. Remember that Obama already has a double-digit lead over McCain counting early/absentee votes.
REGION TO WATCH: I-4 corridor is always key, so is SoFla and the Jewish voters who will probably defect to McCain. How many do so could decide the state. An overlooked swath of the state is North Florida. Obama can’t lose there by more than 10-12 points. Alachua/UF is blue, but what about the S to N arc from Hernando to Madison to Nassau?

Iowa - 54-37 Obama, Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co.
Not really a battleground anymore, but the McCain campaign says they have some trick left, so we’ll include it. Obama never lost his mojo from the primary shock, keeping a strong ground organization and retaining appeal with Iowans on the economy. Remember that McCain skipped the caucuses…
No true region to watch.

Nevada - 47-43 Obama, Mason-Dixon/Las Vegas Review-Journal
A toss-up from the beginning, Nevada has been trending hard for Obama along with the rest of the nation. Still close enough to be within reach for McCain, but it would take a major Election Day shift among undecideds. Another state demolished by the foreclosure crisis and wary of McCain on the economy. Yucca Mountain could lure folks to Obama.
REGION TO WATCH: Vegas and Clark County should go fort Obama, so it’s up to the rural and ultra-conservative northern swath of the Silver State to win it for McCain. Reno and points east and north will go McCain - the question lies in by how much?

New Hampshire - 52-41 Obama, WMUR/UNH
Only a toss-up because of McCain’s long history of comebacks in the Granite State. Some poll give Obama an even bigger lead, so there’s only memories and the deep love and respect NH independents have (had?) for McCain to sustain hope for a miracle. But grabbing the state out from under Obama could be a bellwether. And NH’s electoral votes could come into play if the race gets super-tight.
REGION TO WATCH: Rural sections of the state. Do moderate/conservative indies sustain their support for Obama?

North Carolina -  49-48 McCain - Reuters/Zogby
The biggest shocker of the night if Obama actually pulls this off. He doesn’t need to get the upset - and he probably won’t. But just competing in this Southern red state that was on zero watch lists going into the general campaign is an accomplishment. Obama forced McCain to spend time and money in the state, weakening his hold on other, more accessible red states for Obama. But the polls are still very tight in NC - although McCain is back in the lead.
REGION TO WATCH: Watch the turnout in the conservative mountains of Western NC and the black turnout - especially if the forecasted 3-4 inches of rain does appear. And does Obama pick up the remaining batch of undecideds in the central part of the state?

Ohio - 50-43 Obama - Q
Another ultimate battleground in the race. Both sides have poured  resources and ground time into the Buckeye State and both sides have a legitimate shot to pick it off. McCain gets the built-in edge because of white swing voters and the large crop of white undecideds in the eastern sections of the state. Obama’s hopes for success ride on turnout and getting at least 40% of the undecided vote. Tall  task with most of them being white and leaning conservative.
REGION TO WATCH: It’s all about Southeastern Ohio for both sides. The hardscrabble - and economically depressed - cities like Cambridge, Steubenville, Marietta - all are the hottest swing districts in the state. The fate of OH and Pennsylvania rides on how the seam of the two states and into the panhandle of West Virginia go. They are homogenous regions.

Pennsylvania - 52-42 Obama - Q
Like Ohio, the Keystone State will be decided by the white working-class vote in the state’s  many tough  blue-collar towns and cities. Obama has Western PA virtually locked up, so McCain will need huge support around Pittsburgh and the counties on the Ohio border. They’re white, struggling - and generally wary of Obama. The economy is big there, but so is the argument about taxes. “Joe the  Plumber� had little impact initially in W-PA, but the tax issue (and Rev. Wright, etc.?) could dictate how the undecideds break. But you can’t ignore that big lead for Obama…
REGION TO WATCH: First is the areas around Pittsburgh. McCain needs to win big here. Also check out Obama’s margins in the Philly suburbs.

Virginia - 47-44 Obama, Mason-Dixon
How can Obama  not win in Virginia? He won by a landslide in the primary, has a superb ground operation, and has huge number of new Dems and liberal-leaning indies in NoVa and the Richmond suburbs to get support from. The polls have tightened in recent weeks, so that could mean Obama won’t win as much of the rural vote. Obama still has the big advantage.
REGION TO WATCH: Turnout on a rainy day among blacks and younger/new voters. And McCain’s margins in the Valley and Southwestern Virginia.

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The last set of Quinnipiac battleground polls for the uber-swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania show virtually no legitimate movement among the numbers for McCain and Obama, with the Dem nominee remaining ahead by varying margins in all three states.

• Florida: Obama at 47 percent to McCain’s 45 percent, unchanged from October 29;
• Ohio: Obama up 50 - 43 percent, compared to 51 - 42 percent last week;
• Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 52 - 42 percent, compared to 53 - 41 percent last week.

Parsing these final numbers finds that Obama has several advantages even as the races do tighten a bit and the McCain campaign touts their own internal polls showing their candidate gaining in key demographics. Obama is way ahead of McCain in Florida and Ohio early voting, has fairly big leads among independents (although a bit smaller than 2-3 weeks ago) and is beating McCain in most important demo’s outside of white voters.

Two specific problem for McCain show up in these Q numbers and in virtually every poll - national or battleground - done since late September. He is getting slaughtered on the economy - which remains the overwhelmingly most important issue for voters - and is getting dragged down due to spiking unfavorables for running mate Sarah Palin. The most generous of the numbers have her favorables at a 45-45 split. That is much worse than Joe Biden’s numbers and far below McCain and Obama favorability data.

Last note on the economy: According to Q, even Pennsylvania voters, bombarded by “Joe the Plumber” and McCain’s attacks on higher taxes and “spread the wealth,”  say by a 53% to 40% margin that Obama is the best candidate to handle the economy. Mac has a good argument, it’s just that voters are already tuned out.

• Obama is now officially off the campaign trail for two days as he travels to Hawaii for what could be his last visit with his ailing grandmother. Obama’s campaign announced the suspension earlier this week after word came from family members that 85-year0old Madelyn Dunham was taking a turn from the worse after apparently breaking her hip recently. Details are limited on the exact length and nature of the Hawaii trip, but the campaign has said Obama will be spending “personal time” with his grandmother before leaving Honolulu later on Friday local time. It then appears Obama will immediately head back on the trail for Saturday. hitting unannounced swing states in something resembling another “economy tour.” Ramifications of Obama’d departure from the mainland must be judged after the trip, but the move comes at an awkward time as the McCain campaign continues to hammer Obama on taxes and a new AP national poll has McCain gaining six points to put himself nearly even with Obama with under two weeks left in the race. (But we think that poll is an unreliable outlier…)

• Michelle Obama is picking up the slack as her husband jets of to Hawaii. She will be campaigning in Ohio today with events in Akron and Columbus.

• The Obama campaign’s massive and unprecedented money machine has been so successful at stockpiling money that they have released around $4 million for use by state Democratic parties in key swing states. The money, coming out of Obama’s original presidential campaign fund - meaning it’s besides the specific state party PAC’s Obama already funds - will be handed out to the states for use in GOTV efforts and for state and local races. This is $4 mil that will directly to electing new Democratic Senators and Congressman to build Obama’s hoped-for Democratic super-majority on Capitol Hill.

• The Colin Powell endorsement has helped Obama significantly among independents according to Washington Post analysis.

• Taking refuge in a state that has helped him rise from the political dead on two different occasions, John McCain made a stop in New Hampshire yesterday and made his most basic and desperate plea yet to supporters, telling crowds in the Granite State “don’t give up hope” on his campaign. McCain went on to say that he “loves New Hampshire,” remembering some of his “happiest, happiest memories” came in the state, clearly remembering his underdog triumphs in the GOP primaries of 2000 and 2008. But the general election is not a primary, and this race is about much more than the tiny Granite State. Even here, McCain has bee losing ground for months and is seen as fighting a losing battle with Obama for New Hampshire independents and swing voters. Many of those voters have been part of McCain’s loyal base in his two primary wins. But support has eroded for the GOP nominee in the face of what many moderates see as an unfortunate shift to the right and a borderline sleazy campaign, running dishonest and unfair attacks on Obama - the kind of stuff McCain was fighting against in his primary victories.

• McCain was all over the trail yesterday, jetting off to Cincinnati after his New Hampshire event. There the McCain-Palin team crafted new catchphrases and offered up more “Joe the Plumber”-types to attack Obama as a foe to aspiring entrepreneurs and a typical tax-and-spend liberal candidate. Sarah Palin introduced Obama as “Barack the wealth spread” to resounding cheers from campaign supporters, delivering a new anti-Obama line that has been used multiple times already today in McCain press releases to hit the Dem nominee for his rather unfortunate description of a facet of his economic policy. McCain-Palin also used the Ohio event to introduce more Joe-style characters to the world, including “Tito the Builder” and Pam the Republican Teacher.” This is all in an effort to script the race as a battle over ideology, not specific plans. The McCain campaign just wants to stir up even a sprinkling of doubt in swing voters who have moved into the Obama camp after September’s economic crisis. “Joe” got plenty of attention and may have stopped the GOP bleeding in the polls; why not more like him?

We now have an official statement from the McCain campaign on the SCOTUS decision refusing the GOP request to get the Ohio Secretary of State to check the information of new registrants against official state documents for potential errors.

Rick Davis issued the following statement:

“Today’s decision by the United States Supreme Court does not address violations of the Help America Vote Act (HAVA) by Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Rather, the Court ruled that Congress had likely not authorized private individuals or political parties to bring suit under the section of HAVA requiring voter registration verification through data-matching. It remains our belief that American citizens should be guaranteed that their legitimate votes are not wiped away by illegally cast ballots. What is no longer in question is the partisan nature of Jennifer Brunner’s efforts to minimize the level of fairness and transparency in this election.”

A major ruling from the Supreme Court came down today involving the always contentious issue of voter registration and identification. With the questionable activities of ACORN and other Democratic-leaning groups across the country already hot topics for the McCain campaign and Republicans, their loss in the Ohio case - a crucial battleground with a history of bipartisan shenanigans - should only serve to heighten the tension.

The SCOTUS decision comes in the wake of a lower court ruling against the Democratic government of Ohio that ordered the Secretary of State to go through a lengthy and expensive process to inform county election boards with lists of newly registered voters whose information doesn’t match exactly all documents on record with the state. Republicans saw it as a way to nullify the potentially false registrants via ACORN and weed out Dem-leaning voters from the official rolls.

The case went all the way to the Supreme Court, and today they reversed that lower court decision, giving a big victory to Dem officials and activists with a little over two weeks until election day.

The U.S. Supreme Court, siding with Democrats, freed Ohio officials from a lower court order that might have limited participation by new voters in next month’s presidential election. Today’s ruling means Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, a Democrat, doesn’t have to provide county election boards with lists of new registrants whose information doesn’t match up with government databases. A federal trial judge had ordered Brunner to supply the lists by today.

Republicans who sued Brunner “are not sufficiently likely to prevail” in their lawsuit, the Supreme Court said. The two- page unsigned order was issued on behalf of the full court, without any published dissent.

Brunner said the judge’s order could have affected as many as 200,000 Ohioans, potentially forcing them to cast provisional ballots instead of regular ballots. Democrats likely would have been disproportionately affected by the judge’s order because of the party’s efforts to register new voters this year.

The Ohio Republican Party accused Brunner of ignoring her duty under a federal law to help weed out fraudulent registrations. The dispute was one of several fights that have made Ohio a center of legal controversy leading up to the Nov. 4 election.

Brunner “has fought at every opportunity the appeals of the people of the state and the county boards of election to provide an oversight of this election so it’s done in a free, fair and open matter,” said John McClelland, spokesman for the state Republican Party. McClelland had no immediate comment on the Supreme Court decision, saying the party would issue a statement later.

Brunner was elected secretary of state in 2006. She succeeded Republican Ken Blackwell, who was the target of Democratic criticism leading up to the 2004 election.

Brunner said in court papers that preliminary lists showed “myriad discrepancies” in voter information. “Many of those discrepancies bear no relationship whatsoever to a voter’s eligibility to vote a regular, as opposed to a provisional, ballot,” she said.

There was no immediate reaction from the McCain campaign or Republican Party. The Obama campaign is also not commenting on the court decision.

What is clear for the two campaigns is that controversies involving courts and voter registration will be key players in how this election turns out and just what sort of confusion and catastrophe will break out between now and November 4 - even after the election.

The McCain and campaign and the GOP will only get tougher on the voter fraud angle with the SCOTUS  decision and he ongoing attacks they have launched on the nationwide liberal organization ACORN and both its highly questionable rolls of new registrants and its connections to Obama. That story has the potential to get even uglier after reports surfaced that the FBI is beginning low-level investigations of ACORN in potentially several states over the possibility of registration fraud.

Several F.B.I. offices are reviewing reports of fraudulent voter registrations submitted by the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, or Acorn, a liberal community organizing group that has been under fire from Republicans.

F.B.I. officials said their investigation of Acorn’s activities would, for now, focus on reports of voter registration fraud that have surfaced in several states.

This news was greeted with enthusiasm by the McCain campaign, with spokesman Tucker Bounds telling us that the ACORN controversy should force Obama to “come clean” on his campaign’s connections to the group and its “fraudulent voter activity.”

This theme that liberal groups are trying to steal the election with the direct involvement of the Obama campaign has become an even bigger storyline for McCain than Bill Ayers as of the last two days. Press releases and attacks on the stump have been everywhere as the Ayers controversy slowly burn out and the registration story snowballs. Is it an attempt by the McCain campaign to set themselves up to blame illegal Obama activities if they do fall short in the race?

Sarah Palin was on the trail in Ohio today and again hammered Obama on the ACORN connection, calling on him to release communications his campaign has had with the group and for  Obama to join with the McCain-Palin campaign in pressing for a “full” investigation of voter fraud across the country.

Sarah Palin returned to Ohio today test-driving a new message against Barack Obama: Don’t “turn the Buckeye State into the ACORN state.�

The GOP vice presidential running mate did her best to link Obama with the well-publicized problems of the Association of Community Organizers for Reform Now related to voter registration.

Palin called on Obama to release all his campaign’s communications with the group.
And the Alaska governor contrasted the GOP campaign, which she said won’t tolerate fraud, with that of the Democrats, who she said refuse to disavow ACORN’s activities.

Something that consistently gets ignored in discussion about ACORN and the dire charges of “voter fraud” is that any fraudulent (wittingly or not) actions perpetrated by these groups with regard to registrations probably will not unfairly turn any election or cause massive voting irregularities. ACORN has been accused of - and actually admitted - allowing its contracted registration team members to basically invent voters to place as Democrats on the rolls. They either write down fake names or register people who clearly have no ID and no way to prove who they are at the polls; they would get a provisional ballot that would likely get dismissed. “Mickey Mouse” may be registered in Cleveland, but they will never show up at a polling place.

Two ads released in quick succession today by the campaigns taking each other on over lost Ohio jobs - a big issue in such a vital swing state.

Obama tried to pin McCain down as being responsible for supporting foreign-owned DHL’s bid to buy Wilmington, Ohio-based Airborne Express and potentially move jobs out of Ohio. They put out a radio ad on the subject last week; now they’re out with a state TV spot.

See below for Obama’s Ohio ad, called “Punch.”

McCain’s campaign wasn’t knocked down for long by the attack. They immediately responded with an Ohio spot of their own refuting the jobs charge and slamming Obama on the economy and again on the “celebrity” issue, including the line “Maybe the applause has gone to his head…”

McCain’s response below…

And we can clearly see that Ohio won’t be let go by either side without a few sucker punches and a prolonged fight.

The rapid fire hurts Obama most, because he didn’t get away with the first DHL-themed spot long enough to make a real impact on voters. And now Ohioans get to see McCain’s taunting cries of “celebrity” as the last word on the subject.

This type of storyline will be played out across the battlegrounds…