The first big break for the media in the Obama Veepstakes came tonight as NBC News somehow was able to confirm the rumors that Evan Bayh and Tim Kaine are not in contention to be Obama’s running mate, having been among the handful of names personally called by the Dem nominee either today or this week.

Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh and Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine have been told by Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama’s campaign they will not be his vice presidential choice, NBC News reported on Friday, quoting sources.

NBC News quoted unidentified sources as saying that Bayh and Kaine were informed they were out of the running.

Until we have the official Veep name, questions will immediately turn to why either Bayh or Kaine weren’t the final pick. Was Bayh’s Iraq war exuberance too controversial? Did Kaine blab too much as he made the short list or was it just his minimal record that turned away Obama?

Questions, questions…

This leads us to update our Veepstakes board tonight.

1.  Joe Biden - Not a word from the usually chatty Biden could be an indicator (9:30 PM - Biden looks increasingly to be the clear choice here. Only a major surprise pick will derail his chances)
2. Evan Bayh - Hanging on in the race.
3. Chet Edwards - Dark horse boosted by Pelosi’s endorsement, making waves with multiple chats with media outside his Waco home. Then again, he’d probably shut up if he were the guy.
4. Kathleen Sibelius - A woman would tick off some Hillary fanatics while soothing others. And she has been ignored by the media - just like the campaign likes it.
5. ??? - Fill in the blank here with Hillary, Gore, Bloomberg, Elvis…

Obama continued his swing through Virginia earlier today and spent considerable time with Governor Tim Kaine, chatting with him privately this morning and escorting him through the Richmond Omni hotel on his way out. Kaine is still considered a solid name on Obama’s Veep short list, but his stock is fading thanks to rumors from the inside and simple CW. No reporters camped at the edge of his driveway…

Kaine learned his lesson about chattiness earlier this month after the campaign rebuked him for acting so outwardly giddy about being a top name for inclusion on the ticket: He has toned down his media appearances and generally steered clear of any Veep talk. Today was no different - even with Obama literally at his side.

“I’m going to let the campaign speak for the campaign,” Kaine said afterward, when asked if Obama had talked to him about being his running mate.

But is this changed behavior only apparent in public? Kaine is still privately “excited” about his prospects as Obama’s mate and is thrilled to be hanging around the vaunted short list so late in the game.  Kaine was said to “think he has a chance” at the position as late as Wednesday, when West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin talked to him about the subject.

West Virginia Gov. Joe Manchin said Thursday that he spoke to Kaine about the vice presidential search Wednesday. Manchin said Kaine told him although he hadn’t heard anything from the Obama campaign on where he stands at the time, “he really thinks he has a chance at the short straw.”

So Obama has clearly made his VP choice today, according to that USA Today story covered earlier. He refuses to indicate whether he has informed his final choice of his new status, but one would assume that some info has passed between the two camps - that of Obama and the unknown Veep pick.

So did Kaine have an idea of his final Veepstakes disposition  yesterday as he chatted with Manchin? Wouldn’t we all like to know…

USA Today reports that Obama has indicated in an interview with them that he has decided on a final choice to be his running mate. Obama was asked point blank whether he had decided on his VP and he answered a firm “yes.” The great Veepstakes is about to ed for the Dems…

In an interview in Chester, Va., the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee said he’s made up his mind, but he would not say whether he’s informed that person yet. “I won’t comment on anything else until I introduce our running mate to the world,” he said. “That’s all you’re going to get out of me.”

Obama said it was a difficult decision. “We had some great choices.”

Obama obviously didn’t name the choice, but he did give what could be seen as clues to the identity of his running mate. For example, instead of  talking up foreign policy experience or someone with a strong background to stand with him in the campaign, the Dem nominee noted that his decision was based more on domestic issues.

Obama said he wanted somebody who is “prepared to be president” and who will be “a partner with me in strengthening this economy for the middle class and working families.”

You could parse that statement and immediately throw Joe Biden’s name out of the mix and insert anyone from Tim Kaine to Tom Dashcle. One thing that is very clear is that the description does not fit anything close to Biden. Though not completely lacking in economic policy prowess, he would provide steady back-up for Obama on foreign matters.

So is it a blatant sign? Or just a fake-out?

Back and better than ever…

• No news coming from the campaign trail even comes close to touching the Veepstakes for sheer buzz and excitement. Rumors and speculation had been swirling (about as much as Fay was swirling off of our coast this weekend)  for weeks about  the specifics surrounding the running mate picks of both McCain and Obama. “Target” dates cam and went without a word and without even a clear favorite. No longer. The New York Times reports that people within the Obama campaign have confirmed that a day this week will be when the Dem nominee announces his VP choice with an “elaborate” series of rollout events and moves set to create some buzz around a name that will probably be no surprise (sorry, Hillary supporters…). Meanwhile, the McCain camp is eagerly listening to the Obama Veepstakes chatter and smiling broadly that they managed to hold out long enough to let their hated opponent make the first move. Nevertheless, thee campaign has admitted that they also have a timetable picked out for unveiling McCain’s final, pro-life, Veep pick. It is set to be August 29, a day after Obama’s Denver nomination speech. Talk about fighting for attention…

• “When” had become as fascinating a debate and question as the all-important, “who,” but that comes to an end with both sides setting a general time frame for the Veep announcements. So who will Obama pick? He;s up first and in need of some fresh energy in a campaign that has amazingly become stuck in neutral and teetering on the edge of disaster. Unfortunately for Dems, his running mate pick will not bring out the fireworks. It’s down to Bayh, Biden or Kaine - and the VA Governor is the easy pick (it would appear) since the first two names have been given convention speaking slots on the Veep’s night already. That could be a smoke screen from the Obama campaign, but we’ll side with the CW and pick Kaine. He’s not a bad choice - strong moderate record, potentially lock up a swing state and is a more “common man” in appearance than another Senator would be (although Kaine is Ivy League material). But his name has been bandied about for weeks now and his selection would be a bit of a yawner for most voters as well as the media. And the liberal base will surely raise a temporary ruckus over Kaine’s stated pro-life position and those moderate tendencies we mentioned.

• On to McCain: His innocent floating of a pro-choice Veep was strafed down by the religious right; only a strict pro-lifer will be on the GOP ticket. Word is that McCain himself was set on either Joe Lieberman or Lindsey Graham for his Veep, but Lieberman’s politics and Graham’s way-too-close relationship with McCain (as well as eerily similar resumes) made them impossible choices. Romney and Pawlenty are said to be the final two viable names on the McCain short list. Cantor and Portman were merely interesting names to chat about and get the conservative base really excited. But their positions as mere House members, as well as Portman’s ties to the Bush administration, make them unlikely picks. So Mitt and Pawlenty are the last two standing. Very few leaks about preference between these two have come out of the McCain camp; Pawlenty is well known as a friend of McCain and thus always favored, but a Romney selection could soothe ruffled conservatives (not evangelicals, though) and put to rest any worries about base turnout. It’s truly up in the air.

• Palpable worries from Democrats about how Obama and his campaign are responding to McCain’s incessant attacks have forced a major shift in strategy right out of the gate following Obama’s Hawaiian vacation last week. With Obama’s team is also skittish over the success of McCain’s negative strategy and the apparent traction of Corsi’s “Obama Nation” fable, making them open to looking over what had been a playbook full of “above the fray” moves and a plan that would have McCain portrayed as an out of touch meanie who was basically background noise to Obama’s coronation. The polls and reaction from voters makes it clear that Axelrod and Plouffe miscalculated and underestimated the GOP’s ability to stoke real or false doubts about Ohama and let them fester with voters. So Obama has tweaked his stump rhetoric to take on McCain directly and sow some character and judgment doubts of his own. The fiery speech at the Orlando VFW convention this morning is something you never would have heard from Obama as little as a month ago.

• A central cog of Obama’s strategy to win over moderate evangelicals is falling apart. Obama has always been unabashedly pro-choice, but that message has been consistently muted by his campaign in that effort to portray the Dem nominee as at least open to pro-life ideals in order to get some key November votes. But some major faux pas’, like the very public one last weekend at Rick Warren’s Saddleback forum, have turn off the very voter bloc he wanted to impress. Instead of winning over evangelicals with talk of “reducing abortions,” it only brings to the surface the very strong differences in position between Obama and religious voters, not to mention getting Obama into the tight spot he entered at the Warren event, being forced to clumsily wriggle his way out of a direct answer to the eternal question of when life begins. These mishaps and te general closeness of the election is starting to bring up some buyer’s remorse among pro-Obama evangelicals. While his numbers with religious voters are still better than most Dem presidential candidates, there is a danger of a steep decline as November looms and it gets more difficult to gloss over his abortion stance.

• News out of the Denver preparations is that Al Gore has officially been invited to deliver a rousing address just before Obama goes on stage to accept the official party nomination on the final night of the convention at Invesco. Yes, Gore will be the warm-up act for Obama before a screaming mass of 70,000 Dems in Denver. And Hillary stews…

Tim Kaine’s chances for Veep just shot way up as the announcement that both Evan Bayh and Joe Biden have been given speaking slots on Wednesday of the Dem convention.

Kaine still has yet to receive a formal slot to speak; something that would certainly be a done deal if not for his inclusion on the super short list for Obama. Either way, Kaine won’t be left off the convention roster .

This development begs the question; is the Bayh and Biden move simply to throw off the media and inject confusion as to who is the ultimate choice? Surely the Obama camp knew that Kaine would instantly become the hot name as the two other main contenders are given official Denver slots on the night the VP will speak.

Gotta find out if this is a smoke screen…

• The ongoing conflict between Russia and Georgia has certainly made its mark on the presidential race. Both candidates have used the fighting and Russia’s invasion to tag the other with whatever unflattering image on foreign policy works best for them. McCain has been uber-hawkish, taunting both Russia and Obama over the issue. McCain accuses Obama of playing politics with the Georgia crisis (which means McCain just played politics by accusing his opponent of playing politics…), chastising him for failing to understand the “importance” of a “bipartisan concern.” Indeed, the Obama campaign has used some of McCain’s bold statements and gut reactions to label him as “reckless” and “shooting from the hip,” with Obama adviser Susan Rice going so far as to complaining that McCain’s repeated comments on the conflict may be hurting chances for a ceasefire between the two countries. Either way, this has become the new central focus in the ongoing foreign policy battles between McCain and Obama. Like Iraq, both sides have presented very different views on how to handle a crisis and how to deal with a rising Russia. Question is, will voters understand the issue and who will they side with in their own gut reaction?

• McCain’s efforts to insert himself into the Georgian drama has shined a light on the past and current lobbyist ties that his foreign policy adviser, Randy Scheunemann, has. Scheunemann has worked for various governments and corporations for years as a lobbyist in Washington, including a job for the government of Georgia up until this March. That role is being especially scrutinized as McCain ramps up the rhetoric against Russia and prepares to send his own independent emissaries - Joe Lieberman and Lindsay Graham - to Georgia. McCain’s relationship with Scheunemann goes back to the 2000 campaign where ha also served as JMac’s foreign policy adviser.

• Bothered by public concerns over McCain’s knowledge of the internet and technology, his campaign has released what they are calling a “major plan” on tech issues that has been dubbed “John McCain and American Innovation.” It’s basically a tax and jobs plan disguised as something relating directly to the internet and tech usage, with a reiteration of McCain’s opposition to any “net neutrality” laws - laws supported by Democrats and internet advocates - thrown in. The plan also backs up McCain’s past statements rejecting taxes on internet sales and announces another new job training effort, this one devoted to R&D workers in tech.This is clearly just a slapped-together response to McCain’s perceived technophobia and news that he doesn’t use the internet. The plan won;t draw in any tech-minded voters - they’re all voting for Obama or Bob Barr.

• The status of Tim Kaine as Obama’s Veep as bounced around considerably sine the announcement that Mark Warner, former VA Governor, would deliver the keynote address at the Dem convention. Conventional wisdom would say that Kaine is done as a contender after another Virginian was named to such a major speaking slot. And rumors out of the Kaine camp have the Governor acting “glum” since the Warner news. But there is a glowing profile in the New York Times this morning (Kaine is a bipartisan “bridge builder”) and the fact that his schedule is being handled through the Obama campaign. The buzz is growing for Kaine every minute.

• Liberals distressed by Kaine’s pro-choice ideology and Bayh’s spotty record on Iraq are somehow latching onto Joe Biden as the “perfect”running mate for Obama. Or so says The Nation…

• Chicago’s Sun-Times has confirmed that Oprah will join her good friend has Obama accepts the Dem nomination in Denver. She will be at the convention and present during his Invesco acceptance speech, but no plans to actually have her on stage next to Barack. Will she get a larger role now that her presence has been confirmed?

• Plans from the Obama campaign to push hard for select Southern states are humming along as well as could be expected. While states like Ohio and Pennsylvania are still the major prizes to get to 270, the Obama team is serious about gunning for red states like North Carolina and even Georgia (not to mention their strong Western strategy). The Tar Heel state has been hit hard by the Obama effort, getting $2 million in ad spending and the beginnings of a grass roots outreach effort for October and November. And spirits are high despite polls showing Obama trailing McCain in NC. The Obama state campaign is optimistic about their prospects for this fall.

“It’s not that big a stretch for Barack Obama to win North Carolina this year,” state campaign director Marc Farinella told reporters in a conference call featuring Gov. Mike Easley. “This is a battleground state and we’re going to win it.”

Hot Obama Veep contender VA Gov. Tim Kaine was back in the spotlight today, giving a big speech at the meeting of the Southern Governors’ Association in West Virginia.

Kaine spoke about two issues near and dear to Obama and the national Democratic Party, climate change and alternative energy. A push to show he’s knowledgeable on serious national issues? Maybe…

“The issue of energy and how we will we provide power for homes, businesses, transportation has gone from a back-burner issue to a front-burner issue — thank goodness,” Kaine told a meeting of the Southern Governors’ Association on the final day of its annual conference, held at The Greenbrier resort.

“There is no doubt that the science shows that climate change is happening,” he said.

Kaine had been off the national radar screen as he took a few days off for a family vacation and then spent the weekend simply working the rooms at the SGA convention.  That didn’t cool off speculation as to his potential future on the Dem ticket, but it did allow a name like Evan Bayh to move to the top of that vaunted Veep list.

Kaine looks more and more promising as Obama’s final choice with new consideration of whether Virginia is truly in play for the Dems in November. Parsing the polls finds a strong core of Republican resistance that overwhelms most of the commonwealth outside of the D.C. suburbs and parts of Richmond.

Does Kaine as Veep have the ability to move greater swaths of VA into Obama’s camp? It’s the ultimate gamble, because Bayh probably gives the largest national benefit (though it’s still very small) owing to his better name recognition and reputation as a true moderate Senator.

But your guess is as good as ours when it comes to the timing of Obama’s announcement. New rumors have it coming immediately following the Olympics…

For someone who has consistently broken the revered golden rule of potential running mates - keep your freakin’ mouth shut - VA Gov. Tim Kaine continues to be the Veep contender with which the Obama campaign is most enamored. Kaine has been vetted extensively, with repeated calls from the campaign concerning documents and records. And all reports suggest that the final three-man list Obama’s VP search team has cooked up has Kaine at or near the top.

Then there’s the blabbering of Kaine himself. He has been especially gregarious with the press and even constituents who ask him about the Veepstakes and the possibility he will be Obama’s final choice. He never mentions anything classified,” but he didn’t rebuff friends who called him “Vice President Kaine” on a local radio talk show and he has mentioned that Obama’s VP short list” is getting shorter”: clearly a sign that his office is in the know on that topic.

Kaine made more commnets today while in Chincoteague, Virginia at the - love this -”Annual Chincoteague Pony Swim” with his daughter.

He managed to downplay his chances and admit his own personal feelings in an interview with NBC News.

In an interview with NBC News and the National Journal, Kaine downplayed chatter over his potential role as Obama’s No. 2 as a more casual matter than the frenzy makes it seem. “I have no idea how serious it is or anything,” he said, “but it’s been kind of fun.”

Asked if he’s spoken with the Illinois senator recently, Kaine responded, “No, not for, gosh, for a number of weeks. Since before his trip. And I really don’t have any idea about where the process is.”

This guy just will not shut up. Does that hurt his previously soaring chances at running mate? The Obama camp is notoriously  tight-lipped about internal matters and is proud of its generally leak-free run so far. Does Kaine blabbing about their Veep search tick them off enough that they will make it enough of a black mark against him to toss his name from the vaunted  short list?

If you know the Obama campaign, you know that they are serious about preventing leaks or anyone involved with the campaign talking too much. It’s certainly a possibility that Kaine’s mouth may yet cost him the #2 slot.