Somewhat lost among the spectacle of Obama’s acceptance speech last night is the big even for John McCain this afternoon. The GOP nominee will unveil his running mate in an anticipated event at a half-full arena. McCain will unveil the Veep and then commence a pre-convention tour with him/her  through Pennsylvania and other battleground states.

The CW has changed dramatically since last night in the McCain Veepstakes. Breaking news this morning has Tim Pawlenty confirming to the press that he won’t be traveling to Dayton for the McCain event and that it is “fair” to say that he won’t be the final choice. This after Pawlenty fever had swept through the GOP and the media, causing many to peg the Minnesota Governor as the last man standing. Not quite…

Joe Lieberman has also been taken down  a few notches in the Veepstakes. His chances were always more in the realm of wild card, but the buzz around his name was palpable this week. No confirmation, but there are indications that Joe won’t be in Ohio and that he may have been off the short list weeks ago.

Two final names that have everyone going crazy this morning are Mitt Romney (of course) and the darkest of horses- Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.  Romney will be in Dayton regardless of the VP outcome today.

Meanwhile, Palin is reported to have flown all the way from Anchorage on a private Gulfstream with her two children, landing at a small airport just outside of - gasp! - Dayton. Smaller airport, more secrecy/less press.

Is McCain really going to gamble with a virtually unknown governor from the wilderness of Alaska (of all places…) who has some ethics concerns to combat Obama-Biden? It does give him a boost with women, possibly luring away some Hillary voters. And it causes headaches for the Dems in trying to go after the ticket: They certainly can’t hit Palin hard without appearing as unduly mean and tough on a woman. It could be a solid plus.

Stories are breaking fast on McCain’s VP selection as the campaign tries so hard to upset the total media domination that Obama’s nomination speech is sure to bring. Leaks are prevalent, and now the campaign itself is publicly making it known that McCain will announce his running mate tomorrow and then appear at a mega-rally later in the day.

Rick Davis also made it clear that McCain has already made the choice and may have already contacted the person. Who is it? There’s the problem…

Plenty of rumors out there, from Secret Service sweeping the house of Romney’s sister to Pawlenty scrubbing interviews, huddling his staff and preparing to travel.

Joe Lieberman is in on the mix too; anonymous tips have him being whisked to n undisclosed location to…accept the offer from McCain?

Hard to believe any of these rumors considering they’re all an amalgamation of the leaks that turned out to crack the Joe Biden story last week. The security sweeps, the packing, the private calls. It’s all there. Makes it hard to weed out the plausible info from the excitable chatter.

We’ll know it all tomorrow.

• Momentum has finally pushed the Democratic Convention into high gear, with last night’s knockout speeches from Bill Clinton and Joe Biden and the painless roll call vote framing what the new Dem storyline will be coming out of Denver: The party is publicly unified, Barack Obama is prepared to be commander-in-chief, and that opposition to John McCain will be much more fierce and consistent (”More of the same!”) than anything we’ve seen since the end of the primary. What some perceived as a shaky beginning on Monday has suddenly shifted to become as good of a convention as the Obama campaign could hope for. This week in Colorado may end up meaning nothing to voters. McCain could blow folks away with a surprise Veep and continue punching Obama over the celebrity factor. But nothing that happened at the DNC (so far) will be blamed for any potential troubles ahead for the campaign or future defeat for Obama. And the Clintons are finally off the hook (again, so far). Will we all now stop lavishing them with more coverage than the Dem nominee and McCain combined?

• Embarrassing and potentially devastating verbal gaffes are always possible come October or some other date, but Joe Biden has already proved that can at least be a solid attack dog for Obama and will have no second thoughts about taking on his friend John McCain during this election. His headliner speech was surely overshadowed by Bill Clinton’s rock star moment earlier, but Biden still managed to put together a speech that all running mates are expected to give; something that hammers the opponent while also laying out an emotional personal background story that ties in to the greater theme of the ticket. Biden did that on Wednesday. He occasionally hearkened to the broad, more grandiose themes of the Obama campaign- just to show that he could do it, but his real talent was in presenting a tough and feisty shell for himself and the campaign, sprinkling in some of his favorite Scranton/working-class sayings in making it clear that McCain will be hit hard. Joe Biden is performing as advertised.

• All attention now focuses on Obama’s acceptance speech at Mile High tonight, the crescendo of the convention and the first event in this campaign that has the power to dramatically affect the outcome (no, not the VP pick). The debates are more important simply because there are three of them and they’re still ahead of us, but tonight’s speech provides Obama the chance to set the tone for the rest of the campaign and lay out that desperately needed retooled vision that his campaign has been pushing so hard. The esteemed Dan Balz writes that Obama must cut the cord on McCain’s “celebrity” attack theme  - and face head-on the similar concerns of swing voters - by making the case that this election is less about him and more about the general idea and ideals of change and turning the tide on the ills sapping the country’s strength (voters buy that). That specific tone could also be digested as bordering on arrogance - more of the “symbol” talk opens doors for negative ads. General consensus on the speech is that it has to lay out a good contrast between Obama and McCain while also presenting the Dem nominee as someone who has been humbled by the campaign and is ready to lead with others - not to simply lead others.

• Plenty of mixed signals on the McCain Veepstakes front. After a half-week in which McCain himself admitted that he had settled on a running mate and then his campaign concurred anonymously, and a week when the date for the Veep announcement was pushed up and then back and then back again, (whew…) we have more confusion on the matter thanks to the good Senator. Asked about some insider buzz that an event in Pennsylvania this Saturday that features McCain along with Ridge and Romney is proof that one of them is his final choice, McCain casually remarked that he didn’t know the answer because “I haven’t decided yet.” So know JMac backtracks and either lies or admits that he doesn’t have a Veep. This no doubt fuels speculation that Joe Lieberman is the real target and that the campaign is working behind the scenes to calm down evangelicals who are sure to be enraged if Joe is the pick. And now we hear that n announcement tomorrow is again the plan. Talk about a roller coaster…

• Take this for what it’s worth: Tim Pawlenty, long a Veep contender but recently pushed off the media’s short list for McCain, has been one of the more vocal GOP first responders on the ground at the Dem convention in Denver this week. He has personally appeared at press conferences and on TV multiple times to do rapid response opposing the latest “outrage” coming from the Pepsi Center. He has been especially harsh on Obama himself and the Clinton storyline, calling Obama “weak” and the Clintons “hypocrites.” Too late for this audition to make a difference?

• More proof that McCain has a dangerous enthusiasm gap with the Democrats comes in the form of reports that the GOP nominee’s mega-rally (well, it was supposed to be) in Dayton, Ohio tomorrow - where he may unveil his running mate - is far from sold out and that the campaign has been forced to drop off thousands of tickets for free distribution at local GOP offices and, some reports say, they are even handing them out on the streets.

Back and better than ever…

• No news coming from the campaign trail even comes close to touching the Veepstakes for sheer buzz and excitement. Rumors and speculation had been swirling (about as much as Fay was swirling off of our coast this weekend)  for weeks about  the specifics surrounding the running mate picks of both McCain and Obama. “Target” dates cam and went without a word and without even a clear favorite. No longer. The New York Times reports that people within the Obama campaign have confirmed that a day this week will be when the Dem nominee announces his VP choice with an “elaborate” series of rollout events and moves set to create some buzz around a name that will probably be no surprise (sorry, Hillary supporters…). Meanwhile, the McCain camp is eagerly listening to the Obama Veepstakes chatter and smiling broadly that they managed to hold out long enough to let their hated opponent make the first move. Nevertheless, thee campaign has admitted that they also have a timetable picked out for unveiling McCain’s final, pro-life, Veep pick. It is set to be August 29, a day after Obama’s Denver nomination speech. Talk about fighting for attention…

• “When” had become as fascinating a debate and question as the all-important, “who,” but that comes to an end with both sides setting a general time frame for the Veep announcements. So who will Obama pick? He;s up first and in need of some fresh energy in a campaign that has amazingly become stuck in neutral and teetering on the edge of disaster. Unfortunately for Dems, his running mate pick will not bring out the fireworks. It’s down to Bayh, Biden or Kaine - and the VA Governor is the easy pick (it would appear) since the first two names have been given convention speaking slots on the Veep’s night already. That could be a smoke screen from the Obama campaign, but we’ll side with the CW and pick Kaine. He’s not a bad choice - strong moderate record, potentially lock up a swing state and is a more “common man” in appearance than another Senator would be (although Kaine is Ivy League material). But his name has been bandied about for weeks now and his selection would be a bit of a yawner for most voters as well as the media. And the liberal base will surely raise a temporary ruckus over Kaine’s stated pro-life position and those moderate tendencies we mentioned.

• On to McCain: His innocent floating of a pro-choice Veep was strafed down by the religious right; only a strict pro-lifer will be on the GOP ticket. Word is that McCain himself was set on either Joe Lieberman or Lindsey Graham for his Veep, but Lieberman’s politics and Graham’s way-too-close relationship with McCain (as well as eerily similar resumes) made them impossible choices. Romney and Pawlenty are said to be the final two viable names on the McCain short list. Cantor and Portman were merely interesting names to chat about and get the conservative base really excited. But their positions as mere House members, as well as Portman’s ties to the Bush administration, make them unlikely picks. So Mitt and Pawlenty are the last two standing. Very few leaks about preference between these two have come out of the McCain camp; Pawlenty is well known as a friend of McCain and thus always favored, but a Romney selection could soothe ruffled conservatives (not evangelicals, though) and put to rest any worries about base turnout. It’s truly up in the air.

• Palpable worries from Democrats about how Obama and his campaign are responding to McCain’s incessant attacks have forced a major shift in strategy right out of the gate following Obama’s Hawaiian vacation last week. With Obama’s team is also skittish over the success of McCain’s negative strategy and the apparent traction of Corsi’s “Obama Nation” fable, making them open to looking over what had been a playbook full of “above the fray” moves and a plan that would have McCain portrayed as an out of touch meanie who was basically background noise to Obama’s coronation. The polls and reaction from voters makes it clear that Axelrod and Plouffe miscalculated and underestimated the GOP’s ability to stoke real or false doubts about Ohama and let them fester with voters. So Obama has tweaked his stump rhetoric to take on McCain directly and sow some character and judgment doubts of his own. The fiery speech at the Orlando VFW convention this morning is something you never would have heard from Obama as little as a month ago.

• A central cog of Obama’s strategy to win over moderate evangelicals is falling apart. Obama has always been unabashedly pro-choice, but that message has been consistently muted by his campaign in that effort to portray the Dem nominee as at least open to pro-life ideals in order to get some key November votes. But some major faux pas’, like the very public one last weekend at Rick Warren’s Saddleback forum, have turn off the very voter bloc he wanted to impress. Instead of winning over evangelicals with talk of “reducing abortions,” it only brings to the surface the very strong differences in position between Obama and religious voters, not to mention getting Obama into the tight spot he entered at the Warren event, being forced to clumsily wriggle his way out of a direct answer to the eternal question of when life begins. These mishaps and te general closeness of the election is starting to bring up some buyer’s remorse among pro-Obama evangelicals. While his numbers with religious voters are still better than most Dem presidential candidates, there is a danger of a steep decline as November looms and it gets more difficult to gloss over his abortion stance.

• News out of the Denver preparations is that Al Gore has officially been invited to deliver a rousing address just before Obama goes on stage to accept the official party nomination on the final night of the convention at Invesco. Yes, Gore will be the warm-up act for Obama before a screaming mass of 70,000 Dems in Denver. And Hillary stews…

• All eyes will be on Rick Warren’s Saddleback mega-church in California tomorrow night as both McCain and Obama attend a live televised “conversation” with Warren on religion, values, and other topics pertinent to the ‘08 race. Warren is the superstar pastor of Saddleback and best-selling author of “The Purpose Driven Life” as well as other books. He’s best known for his decision to stay away from the outright partisan proselytizing and political hardball that other evangelical leaders take part in; names like Dobson, Pat Robertson or the late Jerry Falwell. Warren is a values conservative and supported George W. Bush’s reelection bid in ‘04, but he is enough of an open-minded moderate at this point that Obama is counted as a close friend of his and the image-focused Obama campaign has no problem sending their candidate out to Saddleback for what will be a major campaign event. Topics are said to be wide-ranging for the two separate conversations Warren will have with the candidates, but there is little doubt that both McCain and Obama will be going after evangelicals and values voters who have strayed from the GOP for whatever reason.

• Battlegrounds are popping up across the country as the polls shows tighter races than anticipated in several states. Obama appears to be losing his grip on what had been Dem-leaning states, including blue state Minnesota. Both campaigns are prepared to fight hard for MN, with the ultimate wild card still on the table in McCain’s potential choice of Governor Tim Pawlenty as his running mate. Obama had built up the strongest grass roots organization from his primary win in the state, but McCain has been inching up in the polls and his campaign staff are set to reverse course and again launch intensive ground efforts after they had initially given up Minnesota for dead. They’re optimistic with the recent trends in the polls and whatever boost a possible Pawlenty Veep choice would bring.

• Talk of a McCain-Lieberman ticket is running rampant among highly concerned Republicans and conservatives.Tensions are even higher after McCain himself foolishly admitted that his running mate could be pro-choice and campaign indications that his Veep could be someone chosen less for party unity and more for his record and personal relationship with McCain. While evangelicals are screaming their heads of about Tom Ridge or Lieberman, some conservatives are preparing to bite the bullet and are accepting a scenario similar to one put forth by Rich Lowry. Lowry sees a possible “desperation” move by McCain in picking Lieberman as VP, something that would be an admission of a weak Republican Party message to voters and general hostility to hard-line GOP politicians by swing voters following eight years of Pres. Bush. Lieberman’s choice would basically destroy the GOP in order to save it; and one-up Obama’s so-far empty rhetoric of true bipartisanship. It’s more than intriguing…

• More disruptive outrage from angered supporters of Mike Huckabee (and maybe Huck himself). A powerful band of Huckabee followers calling themselves “Huck’s Army” have sent email blasts demanding that McCain either name Huckabee his running mate or give him a top speaking slot the convention; and at the very least urging McCain not to pick Mitt Romney as Veep. Huck’s backers are livid that Romney has been “shoved down (their) throats” and are responding with greater demands for a Huckabee role in the McCain campaign. The important thing is that, for now, there have been no outright calls of boycotting the convention or somehow disrupting that event or the McCain campaign in general.

• He’s baaaack: Phil Gramm  - he of the “nation of whiner” and “mental recession” remarks many weeks ag0 - has resurfaced as a fixture within the McCain inner circle. Though he insists that he is not back in either his old role as economic adviser or some lesser spot in the campaign, Gramm was spotted at the Aspen forum visited by McCain yesterday and received warm acknowledgment from McCain himself as he spoke before guests at a dinner for fundraisers. - “Thank you, Phil, for all your friendship and support,” McCain said.- Now it’s up to the Obama campaign to break from their stupor and take advantage of this lovely opportunity given them by McCain…

• Obama heads off to his native Hawaii this morning for 9 days of R&R. And maybe to tweak his fading campaign message…

• So what is wrong with Obama? He has spent a good chunk of the last month fending off direct blows from McCain’s new attack dog Steve Schmidt, trying to make a palpable shift to the center but then getting caught in flip-flop accusations, and generally losing ground in most key battleground states and in many national polls. That precipitous drop in the polls has cooled somewhat in the last week after Obama decided to hit McCain back. But questions linger and there is an overwhelming sense that the Obama campaign is stuck in a rut. Some have argued that they have become too soft in pushing back against McCain. There has been little evidence of that old Axelrod/Plouffe magic we witnessed in the primary or in June and early July. They have yet to solidly mark McCain as an unacceptable direct link to George W. Bush and a tool of Washington who spent decades in the House and Senate without any major accomplishments on the pressing issues of today. That tack would turn the experience argument on its head. No, there has been something missing from the Obama camp lately; something big. Will they be able to turn it around and make up for the missed trail days while “The One” is chilling on a beach? Another misstep…

• The big non the Clinton front yesterday was the announcement from the Obama campaign that Bill Clinton would speak at the Denver convention after some testy “negotiations” on what day and what time the former president deserved to receive from the Dem nominee. Bill is scheduled to give a speech on Wednesday directly ahead of a speech from whomever Obama’s running mate will be. It’s a good ending for the Dems in what had been a tense issue. In the end, the Obama camp concluded that not allowing Bill to speak in Denver would create a much bigger, much more damaging story that anything he will say (or not say) in his speech.

• But the prospects for a contentious Dem convention have not entirely receded. There is still the question of how to proceed with the actual nomination vote and if Hillary supporters will be allowed to cast their personal votes for HRC as a sign of both respect and the major force that she built up during the tough primary. Grass roots Hillary backers are ready to support Obama, but not before they get a final chance to indicate their first choice in the Dem race. It will not be a pleasant run-up to Denver for the Democrats and, most importantly, for Obama.

• Strong words in an interview from Southern Baptist Convention leader Richard Land, a big name in the evangelical community and someone who is very interested in John McCain’s choice of running mate. Resigned to the fact that McCain is the GOP nominee and that the evangelical community will have to live with that, Land has now turned his eye to the Veepstakes. This is the last chance for the religious right to influence McCain and will be a huge factor in what kind of intensity and turnout religious voters bring to McCain in November. Land was especially enthusiastic about wild card Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a rabid pro-lifer and lifetime NRA member who has generated intense buzz among the grass roots conservative movement. Land also voiced support for Mitt Romney, despite the Mormon question. But there are a few names he doesn’t want to see on the ticket: Tom Ridge and Joe Lieberman.

First of all, I agree with that assessment. I think that the vice presidential choice that John McCain makes is probably the most important choice he’s going to make in this entire campaign. Because he has no room for error, no margin for doubt. If he picks a pro-choice running mate, it will confirm the unease and the mistrust that some evangelicals–and don’t forget this, social conservative Catholics–feel about McCain.

If he picks a pro-life running mate, it will help to ease their concerns and confirm to them that, while he may not have been their first choice, he may not have been their second choice, that it’s better to vote for a third class fireman than it is to allow a first class arsonist to become president.

• The name Tim Pawlenty will just not go away in the McCain Veepstakes (what does Land think of him?, with the MN Gov.’s many attributes beginning to shine on the national stage. Pawlenty is an everyman joker but also a savvy politician who has stayed away from hot button controversies in St. Paul. And his call for the GOP to focus more on issues affecting the working and middle-class rather than remaining the party of Big Business in the minds of voters could mesh well with McCain’s efforts at projecting a similar image.

• Karen Tumulty’s bombshell piece on Hillary and Bill for Time has stolen the election spotlight for today, again proving that those pesky Clintons will be a perpetual thorn in the side of Dem nominee Obama. As rumors swell that Hillary and her supporters are planning to politely crash Obama’s convention party with promises to force a full delegate vote before officially nominating Obama and Hillary herself still steamed over the Obama campaign’s weak efforts to assist her in retiring her campaign debt, the Time article blows the top of off the simmering feud between the top two names in Democratic politics. It suggests that both Hillary and Bill are not convinced that Obama has any shot at winning in November, are fighting mad at losing their top spot in the party hierarchy to a virtual unknown, and have no intentions of making nice with Obama as the campaign drags on. Can’t say that any of these “revelations” are truly shocking; the ongoing animosity has hardly been subtle or showing any signs of receding. Hillary has taken Obama’s failure to put McCain away early as proof that she is the better candidate to take on the Republicans and that Barack is simply a puny welterweight who will wilt under the pressure-cooker that is October, etc. In her mind (and Bill’s) she is the real Democratic nominee. And her “18 million” friends are all backing her up.

• The official word from the Obama campaign on Hillary and her role in Denver is all very sunny and cheerful. They insist that “all voices” will be heard at the convention and that Hillary - no mention of Bill - will be awarded a plum speaking slot in front of convention-goers. But there is that burgeoning effort from grass roots Clinton supporters to get full recognition of HRC’s primary delegates and votes. No word on how that will be resolved.

• More Denver excitement: Dems in both Colorado and nationwide are convinced that the Centennial State will be firmly in play - and maybe an official “lean Obama” state - by the time the Denver Democratic convention wraps up later this month. Ground efforts by the DNC and the Obama campaign have been fierce in Colorado, one of the Western states seen as becoming much more Dem-friendly as the economy tanks and new residents filter in to the Denver suburbs.  And the mega acceptance speech Obama is set to deliver at Invesco is seen as something that will lock up the votes of many undecided CO voters and generate some local and regional excitement for Obama.

• There has been a palpable and very visible shift made by the McCain campaign recently in how they and their candidate treats the vaunted press corps. No more “freewheeling” Q&A sessions with traveling reporters or feisty press conferences at every campaign stop where McCain would easily riff on whatever was on his mind at the time. Besides the potential consequences of a public gaffe that McCain could very well commit during his time in front of cameras or the press, McCain himself has become soured on those once-friendly hordes of media member following him around the country on the “Straight Talk Express.” The press has portrayed McCain - fairly or unfairly - as having shed his “maverick” image and become a rather mainstream GOP figure. And then there’s the whole Obama-as-celebrity thing. JMac has become angry and disillusioned with the media; and we all know how McCain reacts to those emotions…

• MN Gov. Pawlenty is shooting up McCain’s VP short list thanks to his pitch-perfect messages aimed at middle-class families and voters who want reform in Washington and “better value” for their tax dollars and vote. And his emerging humor has also been on display, mocking Obama’s suggestion to Americans to keep their tires properly inflated by being the first to introduce a tire gauge at a campaign event and cheerfully agreeing with Paris Hilton’s mock presidential ad that seemed to endorse McCain new “all of the above” energy plan. Pawlenty noted that “she’s moving toward Senator McCain’s position” on energy issues, “so that’s good progress.” And all of this comes with none of Mitt Romney’s primary baggage, Mormon religion or potentially brusque attitude shifts; or Mitt’s mixed-bag record in Massachusetts.

The McCain campaign storyline that Barack Obama is nothing more than a self-important celebrity with little in the form of substantive ideas has trickled down to the short list of McCain VP contenders, most notably Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty. He has consistently been included in the top 3-5 names being heavily considered by the GOP nominee as his running mate. Today in Iowa, he showed everyone just how much he wants the job.

Pawlenty was attending the opening of a GOP election office in Ames, IA when he spontaneously broke into a monologue  about Sen. Obama and how risky/egotistical/silly the Dem nominee really is.

Two notable snippets from his chatter with the media are his subtle comparisons of voting for Obama to “bungee jumping off a cliff” and  mocking Obama or the now infamous quote about making sure every American properly inflates their tires to save on gas consumption.

Pawlenty warmed up the crowd by telling an Ollie and Lena joke, then launched into his brief remarks.  “The people of The United States of America and the people of Iowa are wise.  Voting for Barack Obama for president of the United States, leader of the free world and commander-in-chief is the political equivalent of bungee jumping,” Pawlenty said, “especially if you’re a little up there along there in the way of life — you think it might be a good idea or interesting at the time and then you gete to the edge of the cliff and look over and you think, ‘This is not such a wise idea.’”

Pawlenty a few minutes later pulled a prop out of his pocket.  “Barack Obama stood up at a speech recently and said said that one of the things that is really important from energy policy from his standpoint is to check the pressure in our tired, so here’s a tire gauge and you go out in the parking lot here and check your tires.  Now, the interesting thing - - we want you to have good pressure in your tires, you know, it will very mildly add to your fuel efficiency but checking the air pressure in your tires is not an energy policy for the United States of America,” Pawlenty said.  The crowd applauded.

How many points does this little performance score with McCain and his VP search team?